Germany vs Serbia: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League3Kick-off on October 1, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau
The Footlab model makes Germany the favourite at 68%, against 20% for a draw and 12% for Serbia. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Germany vs Serbia?
Germany starts as the favourite with a 157-point Elo edge (1,787 vs 1,630).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Germany have 11 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats; Serbia have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 25, 2026 | Ecuador(away) | 1-2 | World Cup |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Ivory Coast(home) | 2-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Curaçao(home) | 7-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 6, 2026 | USA(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies |
| May 31, 2026 | Finland(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 2026 | Mexico(away) | 1-5 | Friendlies |
| May 31, 2026 | Cape Verde Islands(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Saudi Arabia(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Spain(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Latvia(home) | 2-1 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Germany win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Serbia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2019 | Germany 1-1 Serbia | Friendlies |
| Jun 18, 2010 | Germany 0-1 Serbia | World Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Germany score 2.6 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Serbia score 1.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 2.6 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
| Serbia | 1.0 | 1.5 | 5 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Germany vs Serbia?
- The Footlab model makes Germany the favourite at 68%, against 20% for a draw and 12% for Serbia.
- Where and when is Germany vs Serbia played?
- Germany vs Serbia is played on October 1, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Europa-Park Stadion, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.