France vs Italy: result 1-1 and analysis
UEFA Nations LeagueLeague A - 3Kick-off on October 2, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Groupama Stadium, Saint-Denis
Full time
What was the result of France vs Italy?
France and Italy drew 1-1 on October 2, 2026.
Goalscorers
- 55′M. OliseFrance
- 68′A. BastoniItaly
What had the model predicted before the match?
Before kick-off, the Footlab AI model gave a France win at 68%: prediction missed. Most likely score announced: 2-1. Actual score: 1-1.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Official lineup for France vs Italy
The starting elevens fielded at kick-off.
France
4-3-3- 20D. Doué
- 7O. Dembélé
- 11M. Olise
- 14A. Rabiot
- 21L. da Cunha
- 9R. Cherki
- 3A. Truffert
- 4D. Upamecano
- 22J. Jacquet
- 2Pierre Kalulu
- 16M. Maignan
Italy
4-3-3- 9M. Kean
- 7F. Esposito
- 20S. Esposito
- 10N. Fagioli
- 8S. Tonali
- 16D. Frattesi
- 5R. Calafiori
- 6A. Bastoni
- 19G. Scalvini
- 2M. Kayode
- 1G. Donnarumma
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, France have 12 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats; Italy have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | Belgium(away) | 1-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Türkiye(away) | 1-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | England(home) | 4-6 | World Cup |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Spain(home) | 0-2 | World Cup |
| Jul 9, 2026 | Morocco(home) | 2-0 | World Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | Türkiye(away) | 4-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Belgium(home) | 0-2 | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Greece(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Luxembourg(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Bosnia & Herzegovina(away) | 1-1 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 France wins, 0 draws, 2 Italy wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2024 | Italy 1-3 France | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 6, 2024 | France 1-3 Italy | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 1, 2018 | France 3-1 Italy | Friendlies |
| Jun 17, 2008 | France 0-2 Italy | Euro Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
France score 2.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Italy score 2.2 and concede 1.3.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 2.3 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Italy | 2.2 | 1.3 | 7 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
France sit 1st in UEFA Nations League (10 points from 4 matches) and Italy sit 2nd (7 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 10 |
| 2 | Italy | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 7 |
A question about France vs Italy?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy