France vs Italy: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League3Kick-off on October 2, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Groupama Stadium, Saint-Denis
The Footlab model makes France the favourite at 59%, against 23% for a draw and 18% for Italy. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win France vs Italy?
France starts as the favourite with a 132-point Elo edge (1,862 vs 1,730).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, France have 12 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats; Italy have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 2026 | England(home) | 4-6 | World Cup |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Norway(away) | 4-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 22, 2026 | Iraq(home) | 3-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 16, 2026 | Senegal(home) | 3-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 8, 2026 | Northern Ireland(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Greece(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Luxembourg(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Bosnia & Herzegovina(away) | 1-1 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Northern Ireland(home) | 2-0 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Norway(home) | 1-4 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 France win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Italy win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2024 | Italy 1-3 France | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 6, 2024 | France 1-3 Italy | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 1, 2018 | France 3-1 Italy | Friendlies |
| Jun 17, 2008 | France 0-2 Italy | Euro Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
France score 2.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Italy score 2.1 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 2.7 | 1.1 | 5 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
| Italy | 2.1 | 1.4 | 7 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for France vs Italy?
- The Footlab model makes France the favourite at 59%, against 23% for a draw and 18% for Italy.
- Where and when is France vs Italy played?
- France vs Italy is played on October 2, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Groupama Stadium, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.