Wales vs Norway: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League3Kick-off on October 1, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea
The Footlab model makes Norway the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Wales. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Wales vs Norway?
Norway starts as the favourite with a 143-point Elo edge (1,730 vs 1,587).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Wales have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Norway have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2026 | Romania(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Ghana(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Northern Ireland(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Bosnia & Herzegovina(home) | 1-1 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Nov 18, 2025 | FYR Macedonia(home) | 7-1 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 26, 2026 | France(home) | 1-4 | World Cup |
| Jun 23, 2026 | Senegal(home) | 3-2 | World Cup |
| Jun 16, 2026 | Iraq(away) | 4-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Morocco(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Sweden(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies |
How many goals should we expect?
Wales score 1.9 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Norway score 2.9 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wales | 1.9 | 1.4 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Norway | 2.9 | 1.0 | 5 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Wales vs Norway?
- The Footlab model makes Norway the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Wales.
- Where and when is Wales vs Norway played?
- Wales vs Norway is played on October 1, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Swansea.com Stadium, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.