Sporting CP vs Benfica: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 33Kick-off on May 9, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio José Alvalade, Lisboa
The Footlab AI model makes Benfica the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Sporting CP. The most likely score is 1-1. If Benfica wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sporting CP vs Benfica?
A very open match: only 30 Elo points separate Sporting CP (2,496) and Benfica (2,466).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Sporting CP vs Benfica
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Sporting CP
4-3-3- 10Geny Catamo
- 19N. Irankunda
- 97L. Suárez
- 5Sergi Altimira
- 77I. Doumbia
- 4S. Andersen
- 25Gonçalo Inácio
- 22Iván Fresneda
- 20M. Araújo
- 72Eduardo Quaresma
- 1Rui Silva
Benfica
4-2-3-1- 14V. Pavlidis
- 27Rafa
- 25G. Prestianni
- 36João Palhinha
- 18L. Barreiro
- 21A. Schjelderup
- 44Tomás Araújo
- 26S. Dahl
- 6A. Bah
- 3A. Circati
- 24Samuel Soares
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 06:05 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sporting CP have 11 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat; Benfica have 12, 2 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Lens(away) | 2-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 9, 2026 | SC Braga(away) | 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Arouca(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Famalicao(away) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Galatasaray(home) | 3-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Guimaraes(home) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | FC Porto(away) | 1-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 16, 2026 | AC Milan(away) | 2-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 13, 2026 | GIL Vicente(home) | 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Moreirense(away) | 4-0 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Sporting CP win, 3 draws, 2 Benfica wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | Sporting CP 1-2 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 5, 2025 | Benfica 1-1 Sporting CP | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 31, 2025 | Sporting CP 0-1 Benfica | Super Cup |
| May 25, 2025 | Benfica 1-3 Sporting CP | Taça de Portugal |
| May 10, 2025 | Benfica 1-1 Sporting CP | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 11, 2025 | Sporting CP 1-1 Benfica | Taça da Liga |
Last archived meeting: Sporting CP vs Benfica on Apr 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sporting CP score 2.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Benfica score 3.3 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP | 2.9 | 0.9 | 5 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Benfica | 3.3 | 0.8 | 6 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sporting CP sit 3rd in Primeira Liga (18 points from 8 matches) and Benfica sit 2nd (19 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 7 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 9 | 18 |
A question about Sporting CP vs Benfica?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sporting CP vs Benfica?
- The Footlab AI model makes Benfica the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Sporting CP.
- Where and when is Sporting CP vs Benfica played?
- Sporting CP vs Benfica is played on May 9, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio José Alvalade, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.