Rio Ave vs Guimaraes: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 33Kick-off on May 9, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Vila do Conde
The Footlab model makes Guimaraes the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Rio Ave. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rio Ave vs Guimaraes?
A very open match: only 87 Elo points separate Rio Ave (1,998) and Guimaraes (2,086).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rio Ave have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Guimaraes have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Estoril(away) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Porto(home) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | GIL Vicente(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Tondela(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Al-Ahli Jeddah(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Nacional(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Sporting CP(away) | 2-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Arouca(home) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Chaves(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Rio Ave win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Guimaraes win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Guimaraes 2-0 Rio Ave | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 13, 2025 | Rio Ave 0-1 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Guimaraes 3-0 Rio Ave | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 16, 2024 | Rio Ave 2-2 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
| May 4, 2024 | Rio Ave 2-1 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 23, 2023 | Guimaraes 1-0 Rio Ave | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Rio Ave score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Guimaraes score 1.4 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave | 1.4 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Guimaraes | 1.4 | 1.2 | 6 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rio Ave sit 10th in Primeira Liga (3 points from 3 matches) and Guimaraes sit 9th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Guimaraes | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 10 | Rio Ave | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rio Ave vs Guimaraes?
- The Footlab model makes Guimaraes the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Rio Ave.
- Where and when is Rio Ave vs Guimaraes played?
- Rio Ave vs Guimaraes is played on May 9, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.