Bermuda vs St. Lucia: prediction and stats
CONCACAF Nations LeagueLeague B - 2Kick-off on November 11, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Dame Flora Duffy National Sports Centre, Hamilton, Devonshire Parish
The Footlab AI model makes St. Lucia the favourite at 39%, against 24% for a draw and 37% for Bermuda. The most likely score is 1-1. If St. Lucia wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bermuda vs St. Lucia?
A very open match: only 74 Elo points separate Bermuda (1,347) and St. Lucia (1,421).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Bermuda vs St. Lucia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Bermuda
4-4-2- 21X. Deroza
- 11D. Hill
- 10Z. Lewis
- 10Z. Lewis
- 13K. Martin
- 8D. Parfitt-Williams
- 3D. Cook
- 6J. Carpenter
- 4J. Dublin
- 2B. Morrison
- 1Milai Perott
St. Lucia
4-2-3-1- 9D. Phillip
- 14C. Elva
- 11Arkelle Nicholas Cecil Jude-Boyd
- 13Bayan Aman
- 21S. Nelson
- 4Eymani Butcher
- 6M. Doxilly
- 5D. Lionel
- 2K. Frederick
- 19Alvinus Myers
- 1V. Barclett
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:33 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bermuda have 2 wins, 1 draw and 12 defeats; St. Lucia have 7, 0 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | Barbados(home) | 1-2 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Barbados(away) | 1-4 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Sep 29, 2026 | St. Lucia(away) | 2-5 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Guadeloupe(home) | 1-2 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Cape Verde Islands(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | Guadeloupe(away) | 1-0 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Guadeloupe(home) | 3-0 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Bermuda(home) | 5-2 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Barbados(away) | 0-2 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Azerbaijan(away) | 1-6 | FIFA Series |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 Bermuda wins, 0 draws, 1 St. Lucia win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | St. Lucia 5-2 Bermuda | CONCACAF Nations League |
How many goals should we expect?
Bermuda score 1.1 and concede 2.9 goals per match over their last 15; St. Lucia score 1.3 and concede 2.4. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bermuda | 1.1 | 2.9 | 1 | 7/15 | 13/15 |
| St. Lucia | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2 | 8/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Bermuda vs St. Lucia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bermuda vs St. Lucia?
- The Footlab AI model makes St. Lucia the favourite at 39%, against 24% for a draw and 37% for Bermuda.
- Where and when is Bermuda vs St. Lucia played?
- Bermuda vs St. Lucia is played on November 11, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Dame Flora Duffy National Sports Centre, in the CONCACAF Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.