Boca Juniors vs Defensa Y Justicia: prediction and stats
Liga Profesional ArgentinaClausura - 16Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Mâs Monumental, Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes Boca Juniors the favourite at 60%, against 24% for a draw and 16% for Defensa Y Justicia. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Boca Juniors vs Defensa Y Justicia?
Boca Juniors starts as the favourite with a 179-point Elo edge (1,981 vs 1,802).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Boca Juniors have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Defensa Y Justicia have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Deportivo Recoleta(away) | 4-0 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Platense(away) | 1-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Deportivo Recoleta(home) | 3-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Velez Sarsfield(home) | 1-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Estudiantes L.P.(home) | 1-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Belgrano Cordoba(away) | 2-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Velez Sarsfield(away) | 1-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Newells Old Boys(home) | 2-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Estudiantes L.P.(away) | 0-3 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Deportivo Riestra(home) | 2-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Boca Juniors win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Defensa Y Justicia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 23, 2026 | Defensa Y Justicia 0-4 Boca Juniors | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Defensa Y Justicia 2-1 Boca Juniors | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Boca Juniors 4-0 Defensa Y Justicia | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 21, 2024 | Defensa Y Justicia 2-2 Boca Juniors | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Feb 10, 2024 | Boca Juniors 0-0 Defensa Y Justicia | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
| Sep 15, 2023 | Defensa Y Justicia 1-0 Boca Juniors | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
Last archived meeting: Defensa Y Justicia vs Boca Juniors on Apr 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Boca Juniors score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Defensa Y Justicia score 1.4 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boca Juniors | 1.3 | 1.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Defensa Y Justicia | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Boca Juniors sit 2nd in Liga Profesional Argentina (30 points from 16 matches) and Defensa Y Justicia sit 10th (19 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 30 |
| 6 | Defensa Y Justicia | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| 10 | Defensa Y Justicia | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 18 | 21 | 19 |
| 13 | Boca Juniors | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Boca Juniors vs Defensa Y Justicia?
- The Footlab model makes Boca Juniors the favourite at 60%, against 24% for a draw and 16% for Defensa Y Justicia.
- Where and when is Boca Juniors vs Defensa Y Justicia played?
- Boca Juniors vs Defensa Y Justicia is played on November 8, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Mâs Monumental, in the Liga Profesional Argentina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
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