Bohemians vs Waterford: prediction and stats
Premier DivisionRegular Season - 34Kick-off on October 16, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Dalymount Park, Dublin
The Footlab model makes Bohemians the favourite at 60%, against 23% for a draw and 17% for Waterford. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bohemians vs Waterford?
Bohemians starts as the favourite with a 118-point Elo edge (1,710 vs 1,592).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bohemians have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Waterford have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Derry City(home) | 5-3 | Premier Division |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Longford Town(home) | 4-0 | FAI Cup |
| Aug 13, 2026 | FC Midtjylland(away) | 2-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Waterford(away) | 1-3 | Premier Division |
| Aug 6, 2026 | FC Midtjylland(home) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Sligo Rovers(away) | 0-0 | Premier Division |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Athlone Town(home) | 2-1 | FAI Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Bohemians(home) | 3-1 | Premier Division |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Shelbourne(home) | 1-0 | Premier Division |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Galway United(away) | 0-0 | Premier Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Bohemians win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Waterford win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | Waterford 3-1 Bohemians | Premier Division |
| Apr 6, 2026 | Bohemians 1-1 Waterford | Premier Division |
| Mar 6, 2026 | Waterford 0-1 Bohemians | Premier Division |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Waterford 1-4 Bohemians | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2025 | Bohemians 2-1 Waterford | Premier Division |
| Jun 20, 2025 | Waterford 2-1 Bohemians | Premier Division |
Last archived meeting: Waterford vs Bohemians on Aug 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Bohemians score 1.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Waterford score 1.9 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bohemians | 1.9 | 1.5 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Waterford | 1.9 | 1.2 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bohemians sit 3rd in Premier Division (47 points from 28 matches) and Waterford sit 8th (29 points from 28 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Bohemians | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 47 | 34 | 47 |
| 4 | Bohemians | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 33 | 27 | 34 |
| 8 | Waterford | 28 | 6 | 11 | 11 | 37 | 48 | 29 |
| 10 | Waterford | 21 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 25 | 42 | 14 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bohemians vs Waterford?
- The Footlab model makes Bohemians the favourite at 60%, against 23% for a draw and 17% for Waterford.
- Where and when is Bohemians vs Waterford played?
- Bohemians vs Waterford is played on October 16, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Dalymount Park, in the Premier Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.