Drogheda United vs Derry City: prediction and stats
Premier DivisionRegular Season - 34Kick-off on October 16, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Sullivan & Lambe Park, Drogheda
The Footlab model makes Derry City the favourite at 37%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for Drogheda United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Drogheda United vs Derry City?
A very open match: only 74 Elo points separate Drogheda United (1,586) and Derry City (1,660).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Drogheda United have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Derry City have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | St Patrick's Athl.(home) | 0-2 | Premier Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | College Corinthians(away) | 3-0 | FAI Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Galway United(away) | 0-0 | Premier Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Shamrock Rovers(home) | 0-0 | Premier Division |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Sligo Rovers(away) | 2-2 | Premier Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Bohemians(away) | 3-5 | Premier Division |
| Aug 14, 2026 | UCD(away) | 2-1 | FAI Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Sligo Rovers(home) | 2-0 | Premier Division |
| Aug 2, 2026 | St Patrick's Athl.(away) | 1-1 | Premier Division |
| Jul 30, 2026 | HNK Rijeka(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Drogheda United win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Derry City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 26, 2026 | Derry City 2-0 Drogheda United | Premier Division |
| May 8, 2026 | Drogheda United 1-0 Derry City | Premier Division |
| Mar 20, 2026 | Derry City 2-2 Drogheda United | Premier Division |
| Sep 26, 2025 | Drogheda United 1-1 Derry City | Premier Division |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Derry City 1-1 Drogheda United | FAI Cup |
| Jun 27, 2025 | Derry City 3-0 Drogheda United | Premier Division |
Last archived meeting: Derry City vs Drogheda United on Jun 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Drogheda United score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Derry City score 1.7 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drogheda United | 1.3 | 1.4 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Derry City | 1.7 | 1.6 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Drogheda United sit 9th in Premier Division (28 points from 28 matches) and Derry City sit 6th (33 points from 28 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Derry City | 28 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 38 | 37 | 33 |
| 6 | Derry City | 22 | 5 | 10 | 7 | 27 | 26 | 25 |
| 8 | Drogheda United | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 27 | 36 | 22 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 31 | 45 | 28 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Drogheda United vs Derry City?
- The Footlab model makes Derry City the favourite at 37%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for Drogheda United.
- Where and when is Drogheda United vs Derry City played?
- Drogheda United vs Derry City is played on October 16, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Sullivan & Lambe Park, in the Premier Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.