Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk: prediction and stats
Premier DivisionRegular Season - 34Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)The Showgrounds, Sligo
The Footlab model makes Dundalk the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Sligo Rovers. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk?
A very open match: only 50 Elo points separate Sligo Rovers (1,550) and Dundalk (1,599).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sligo Rovers have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Dundalk have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Waterford(home) | 0-0 | Premier Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kerry(home) | 4-0 | FAI Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Derry City(away) | 0-2 | Premier Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Dundalk(away) | 1-1 | Premier Division |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Drogheda United(home) | 2-2 | Premier Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Galway United(home) | 1-2 | Premier Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Castlebar Celtic(home) | 8-0 | FAI Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Shamrock Rovers(away) | 2-3 | Premier Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Sligo Rovers(home) | 1-1 | Premier Division |
| Jul 24, 2026 | St Patrick's Athl.(away) | 1-1 | Premier Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Sligo Rovers win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Dundalk win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | Dundalk 1-1 Sligo Rovers | Premier Division |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Sligo Rovers 2-0 Dundalk | Premier Division |
| Mar 16, 2026 | Dundalk 1-0 Sligo Rovers | Premier Division |
| Jul 18, 2025 | Dundalk 0-2 Sligo Rovers | FAI Cup |
| Sep 21, 2024 | Sligo Rovers 2-1 Dundalk | Premier Division |
| Jun 13, 2024 | Dundalk 1-0 Sligo Rovers | Premier Division |
Last archived meeting: Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers on Jul 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sligo Rovers score 1.4 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Dundalk score 1.9 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sligo Rovers | 1.4 | 1.9 | 3 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Dundalk | 1.9 | 1.4 | 3 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sligo Rovers sit 10th in Premier Division (23 points from 28 matches) and Dundalk sit 4th (37 points from 28 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Dundalk | 21 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 34 | 29 | 35 |
| 4 | Dundalk | 28 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 43 | 43 | 37 |
| 9 | Sligo Rovers | 21 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 15 | 33 | 19 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 23 | 45 | 23 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk?
- The Footlab model makes Dundalk the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Sligo Rovers.
- Where and when is Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk played?
- Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk is played on October 17, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at The Showgrounds, in the Premier Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.