St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne: prediction and stats
Premier DivisionRegular Season - 34Kick-off on October 16, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Richmond Park, Dublin
The Footlab model makes St Patrick's Athl. the favourite at 59%, against 23% for a draw and 18% for Shelbourne. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne?
A very open match: only 70 Elo points separate St Patrick's Athl. (1,750) and Shelbourne (1,680).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, St Patrick's Athl. have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Shelbourne have 3, 7 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Drogheda United(away) | 2-0 | Premier Division |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Shamrock Rovers(home) | 3-2 | FAI Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Shelbourne(away) | 2-1 | Premier Division |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Derry City(home) | 1-1 | Premier Division |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Dundalk(home) | 1-1 | Premier Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 2026 | Ajax(home) | 2-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | St Patrick's Athl.(home) | 1-2 | Premier Division |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Ajax(away) | 1-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Waterford(away) | 0-1 | Premier Division |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Kalju Nomme(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 St Patrick's Athl. win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Shelbourne win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | Shelbourne 1-2 St Patrick's Athl. | Premier Division |
| May 15, 2026 | St Patrick's Athl. 0-1 Shelbourne | Premier Division |
| Mar 6, 2026 | Shelbourne 2-3 St Patrick's Athl. | Premier Division |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Shelbourne 0-0 St Patrick's Athl. | Premier Division |
| Aug 17, 2025 | St Patrick's Athl. 2-0 Shelbourne | FAI Cup |
| Jun 16, 2025 | St Patrick's Athl. 0-1 Shelbourne | Premier Division |
Last archived meeting: Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. on Aug 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
St Patrick's Athl. score 1.5 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Shelbourne score 1.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Patrick's Athl. | 1.5 | 0.9 | 5 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
| Shelbourne | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
St Patrick's Athl. sit 2nd in Premier Division (50 points from 28 matches) and Shelbourne sit 5th (34 points from 26 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | St Patrick's Athl. | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 45 | 23 | 50 |
| 2 | St Patrick's Athl. | 21 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 35 | 17 | 38 |
| 5 | Shelbourne | 26 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 36 | 38 | 34 |
| 5 | Shelbourne | 21 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 31 | 29 | 30 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne?
- The Footlab model makes St Patrick's Athl. the favourite at 59%, against 23% for a draw and 18% for Shelbourne.
- Where and when is St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne played?
- St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne is played on October 16, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Richmond Park, in the Premier Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.