Bolívar vs Independiente Petrolero: prediction and stats
Copa de la División ProfesionalGroup Stage - 3Kick-off on September 11, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC)Estadio Hernando Siles, La Paz
The Footlab model makes Bolívar the favourite at 84%, against 11% for a draw and 6% for Independiente Petrolero. The most likely score is 3-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bolívar vs Independiente Petrolero?
Bolívar starts as the favourite with a 299-point Elo edge (1,826 vs 1,528).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bolívar have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Independiente Petrolero have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Real Oruro(away) | 4-2 | Primera División |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Sao Paulo(away) | 1-3 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 15, 2026 | San Antonio Bulo Bulo(home) | 4-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Sao Paulo(home) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Aurora(away) | 4-2 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Nacional Potosí(away) | 0-3 | Primera División |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Blooming(home) | 5-2 | Copa de la División Profesional |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ(home) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | The Strongest(away) | 2-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Aurora(home) | 1-1 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Bolívar win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Independiente Petrolero win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 22, 2026 | Bolívar 1-2 Independiente Petrolero | Primera División |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Independiente Petrolero 1-2 Bolívar | Primera División |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Independiente Petrolero 0-3 Bolívar | Copa de la División Profesional |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Bolívar 2-3 Independiente Petrolero | Copa de la División Profesional |
| Jul 7, 2025 | Bolívar 4-0 Independiente Petrolero | Primera División |
| Sep 26, 2024 | Bolívar 3-0 Independiente Petrolero | Primera División |
Last archived meeting: Bolívar vs Independiente Petrolero on Apr 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Bolívar score 2.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Independiente Petrolero score 1.4 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 79% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bolívar | 2.1 | 1.5 | 2 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
| Independiente Petrolero | 1.4 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bolívar vs Independiente Petrolero?
- The Footlab model makes Bolívar the favourite at 84%, against 11% for a draw and 6% for Independiente Petrolero.
- Where and when is Bolívar vs Independiente Petrolero played?
- Bolívar vs Independiente Petrolero is played on September 11, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC) at Estadio Hernando Siles, in the Copa de la División Profesional.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 79% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.