Chernomorets Balchik vs Ustrem Donchevo: prediction and stats
Third League - NortheastNortheast - 15Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Gradski stadion, Balchik
The Footlab model makes Chernomorets Balchik the favourite at 87%, against 9% for a draw and 4% for Ustrem Donchevo. The most likely score is 3-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chernomorets Balchik vs Ustrem Donchevo?
Chernomorets Balchik is a heavy favourite: 1,772 Elo points against 1,441, a 331-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chernomorets Balchik have 13 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats; Ustrem Donchevo have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Chernolomets 1919(away) | 0-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 30, 2026 | Aksakovo(home) | 3-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 23, 2026 | Botev Novi Pazar(away) | 4-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 16, 2026 | Svetkavitsa 14(home) | 2-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 13, 2026 | Septemvri Tervel(away) | 1-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Olympic Varna(home) | 3-4 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 30, 2026 | Riltzi(away) | 4-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 23, 2026 | Benkovski Isperih(home) | 3-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 16, 2026 | Chernolomets 1919(away) | 0-3 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 13, 2026 | Svetkavitsa Targovishte(home) | 3-0 | Third League - Northeast |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 6 Chernomorets Balchik win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Ustrem Donchevo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | Chernomorets Balchik 4-1 Ustrem Donchevo | Third League - Northeast |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Ustrem Donchevo 1-5 Chernomorets Balchik | Third League - Northeast |
| Mar 22, 2025 | Chernomorets Balchik 3-0 Ustrem Donchevo | Third League - Northeast |
| Sep 14, 2024 | Ustrem Donchevo 0-4 Chernomorets Balchik | Third League - Northeast |
| Jun 3, 2023 | Chernomorets Balchik 4-0 Ustrem Donchevo | Third League - Northeast |
| Nov 30, 2022 | Chernomorets Balchik 1-0 Ustrem Donchevo | Third League - Northeast |
Last archived meeting: Chernomorets Balchik vs Ustrem Donchevo on Feb 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Chernomorets Balchik score 2.9 and concede 0.3 goals per match over their last 15; Ustrem Donchevo score 1.9 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 78% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chernomorets Balchik | 2.9 | 0.3 | 11 | 4/15 | 11/15 |
| Ustrem Donchevo | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chernomorets Balchik sit 10th in Third League - Northeast (1 points from 1 matches) and Ustrem Donchevo sit 11th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Chernomorets Balchik | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Ustrem Donchevo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chernomorets Balchik vs Ustrem Donchevo?
- The Footlab model makes Chernomorets Balchik the favourite at 87%, against 9% for a draw and 4% for Ustrem Donchevo.
- Where and when is Chernomorets Balchik vs Ustrem Donchevo played?
- Chernomorets Balchik vs Ustrem Donchevo is played on November 21, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Gradski stadion, in the Third League - Northeast.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 78% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.