Chernomorets Balchik vs Ustrem Donchevo: prediction and stats
Third League - NortheastNortheast - 15Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Gradski stadion, Balchik
The Footlab AI model makes Chernomorets Balchik the favourite at 90%, against 7% for a draw and 3% for Ustrem Donchevo. The most likely score is 3-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.6% of the 3,680 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chernomorets Balchik vs Ustrem Donchevo?
Chernomorets Balchik is a heavy favourite: 1,739 Elo points against 1,368, a 372-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Chernomorets Balchik vs Ustrem Donchevo
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Chernomorets Balchik
4-3-3- AAdjeil Neves
- AA. Nakov
- CCassiano Bouzon
- VVladislav Danchev Georgiev
- NN. Fonkeu
- SS. Mitev
- YY. Radev
- NN. Yankov
- II. Minchev
- PP. Ivanov
- GG. Grigorov
Ustrem Donchevo
Not enough data to predict the Ustrem Donchevo lineup.
Computed on October 27, 2026 at 02:41 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chernomorets Balchik have 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; Ustrem Donchevo have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Septemvri Tervel(home) | 2-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Riltzi(away) | 3-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Benkovski Isperih(away) | 0-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Volov Shumen(home) | 2-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Etar Veliko Tarnovo(home) | 2-3 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Fratria II(away) | 2-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Dorostol(home) | 4-3 | Third League - Northeast |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Devnya 2005(away) | 1-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Septemvri Tervel(home) | 1-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Benkovski Isperih(away) | 2-3 | Third League - Northeast |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 6 Chernomorets Balchik wins, 0 draws, 0 Ustrem Donchevo wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | Chernomorets Balchik 4-1 Ustrem Donchevo | Third League - Northeast |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Ustrem Donchevo 1-5 Chernomorets Balchik | Third League - Northeast |
| Mar 22, 2025 | Chernomorets Balchik 3-0 Ustrem Donchevo | Third League - Northeast |
| Sep 14, 2024 | Ustrem Donchevo 0-4 Chernomorets Balchik | Third League - Northeast |
| Jun 3, 2023 | Chernomorets Balchik 4-0 Ustrem Donchevo | Third League - Northeast |
| Nov 30, 2022 | Chernomorets Balchik 1-0 Ustrem Donchevo | Third League - Northeast |
Last archived meeting: Chernomorets Balchik vs Ustrem Donchevo on Feb 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Chernomorets Balchik score 1.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Ustrem Donchevo score 2.1 and concede 2.5. The model gives a 83% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chernomorets Balchik | 1.9 | 0.7 | 10 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
| Ustrem Donchevo | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1 | 13/15 | 14/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chernomorets Balchik sit 3rd in Third League - Northeast (23 points from 10 matches) and Ustrem Donchevo sit 15th (7 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Chernomorets Balchik | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 7 | 23 |
| 15 | Ustrem Donchevo | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 30 | 7 |
A question about Chernomorets Balchik vs Ustrem Donchevo?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chernomorets Balchik vs Ustrem Donchevo?
- The Footlab AI model makes Chernomorets Balchik the favourite at 90%, against 7% for a draw and 3% for Ustrem Donchevo.
- Where and when is Chernomorets Balchik vs Ustrem Donchevo played?
- Chernomorets Balchik vs Ustrem Donchevo is played on November 21, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Gradski stadion, in the Third League - Northeast.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 83% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.