Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 13Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Hristo Botev, Vratsa
The Footlab model makes Lokomotiv Plovdiv the favourite at 37%, against 32% for a draw and 31% for Botev Vratsa. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
A very open match: only 65 Elo points separate Botev Vratsa (1,739) and Lokomotiv Plovdiv (1,804).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Botev Vratsa have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Lokomotiv Plovdiv have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | CSKA Sofia(away) | 0-5 | First League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Slavia Sofia(home) | 0-3 | First League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Ludogorets(away) | 1-2 | First League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | CSKA 1948(away) | 1-2 | First League |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Cherno More Varna(home) | 1-1 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Dunav Ruse(home) | 1-2 | First League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Levski Sofia(away) | 0-2 | First League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Spartak Varna(away) | 0-1 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia(home) | 2-1 | First League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Ludogorets(away) | 0-1 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Botev Vratsa win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Lokomotiv Plovdiv win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | Botev Vratsa 1-2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv | First League |
| Oct 17, 2025 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3-0 Botev Vratsa | First League |
| May 15, 2025 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-3 Botev Vratsa | First League |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-0 Botev Vratsa | First League |
| Oct 18, 2024 | Botev Vratsa 0-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv | First League |
| Nov 25, 2023 | Botev Vratsa 2-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv | First League |
Last archived meeting: Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv on Mar 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Botev Vratsa score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Lokomotiv Plovdiv score 1.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botev Vratsa | 1.3 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1.0 | 1.1 | 5 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Botev Vratsa sit 14th in First League (1 points from 5 matches) and Lokomotiv Plovdiv sit 11th (3 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| 14 | Botev Vratsa | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
- The Footlab model makes Lokomotiv Plovdiv the favourite at 37%, against 32% for a draw and 31% for Botev Vratsa.
- Where and when is Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv played?
- Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv is played on October 31, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Hristo Botev, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.