Slavia Sofia vs Cherno More Varna: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 13Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Aleksandar Shalamanov, Sofia
The Footlab model makes Slavia Sofia the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Cherno More Varna. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Slavia Sofia vs Cherno More Varna?
A very open match: only 38 Elo points separate Slavia Sofia (1,745) and Cherno More Varna (1,783).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Slavia Sofia have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Cherno More Varna have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ludogorets(away) | 1-1 | First League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Botev Vratsa(away) | 3-0 | First League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Lokomotiv Sofia(home) | 1-1 | First League |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Arda Kardzhali(away) | 0-1 | First League |
| Jul 20, 2026 | CSKA Sofia(home) | 0-0 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Dunav Ruse(home) | 3-1 | First League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | CSKA 1948(away) | 1-4 | First League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Ludogorets(home) | 2-3 | First League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv(away) | 0-1 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Spartak Varna(home) | 0-3 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Slavia Sofia win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Cherno More Varna win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2026 | Cherno More Varna 1-3 Slavia Sofia | First League |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Slavia Sofia 0-0 Cherno More Varna | First League |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Cherno More Varna 1-1 Slavia Sofia | First League |
| Dec 14, 2024 | Cherno More Varna 1-0 Slavia Sofia | Cup |
| Oct 4, 2024 | Slavia Sofia 1-0 Cherno More Varna | First League |
| Dec 9, 2023 | Cherno More Varna 3-0 Slavia Sofia | First League |
Last archived meeting: Cherno More Varna vs Slavia Sofia on Apr 5, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Slavia Sofia score 1.0 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Cherno More Varna score 1.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slavia Sofia | 1.0 | 1.2 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Cherno More Varna | 1.2 | 1.5 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Slavia Sofia sit 9th in First League (6 points from 5 matches) and Cherno More Varna sit 10th (4 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Slavia Sofia | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 10 | Cherno More Varna | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Slavia Sofia vs Cherno More Varna?
- The Footlab model makes Slavia Sofia the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Cherno More Varna.
- Where and when is Slavia Sofia vs Cherno More Varna played?
- Slavia Sofia vs Cherno More Varna is played on October 31, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Aleksandar Shalamanov, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.