Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 15Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Dragalevtsi, Sofia
The Footlab AI model makes Lokomotiv Plovdiv the favourite at 39%, against 31% for a draw and 30% for Septemvri Sofia. The most likely score is 1-1. If Lokomotiv Plovdiv wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
Lokomotiv Plovdiv starts as the favourite with a 119-point Elo edge (1,756 vs 1,637).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Septemvri Sofia
4-2-3-1- 29F. Herard
- 5Y. Baurenski
- 6Pedro Ferreira
- 8B. Penchev
- 13K. Önaşçı
- 33G. Ivanov
- 4M. Hristov
- 26V. Ozornwafor
- 3Sebastian Wade
- 20B. Tomovski
- 12V. Ivanov
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
4-2-3-1- 29Christ Longville
- 5T. Pavlov
- 39P. Umarbayev
- 7Sevi Idriz
- 11R. Leijten
- 12E. Ali
- 2Adrián Cova
- 13Lucas Ryan
- 4A. Chindriş
- 22I. Ivanov
- 1B. Milosavljevic
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 11:37 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Septemvri Sofia have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Lokomotiv Plovdiv have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv(home) | 0-3 | First League |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Ludogorets(away) | 1-2 | First League |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Botev Vratsa(home) | 2-3 | First League |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Slavia Sofia(away) | 1-1 | First League |
| Aug 23, 2026 | CSKA 1948(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Arda Kardzhali(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 20, 2026 | CSKA Sofia(home) | 1-1 | First League |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv(away) | 0-2 | First League |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Cherno More Varna(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Aug 28, 2026 | CSKA 1948(away) | 0-2 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Septemvri Sofia wins, 1 draw, 3 Lokomotiv Plovdiv wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 26, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2-1 Septemvri Sofia | First League |
| Mar 13, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-0 Septemvri Sofia | First League |
| Oct 3, 2025 | Septemvri Sofia 2-2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv | First League |
| Apr 28, 2025 | Septemvri Sofia 2-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv | First League |
| Feb 16, 2025 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0-1 Septemvri Sofia | First League |
| Aug 26, 2024 | Septemvri Sofia 2-3 Lokomotiv Plovdiv | First League |
Last archived meeting: Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia on Jul 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Septemvri Sofia score 1.2 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Lokomotiv Plovdiv score 0.9 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Septemvri Sofia | 1.2 | 1.5 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 0.9 | 0.9 | 5 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Septemvri Sofia sit 10th in First League (8 points from 10 matches) and Lokomotiv Plovdiv sit 12th (7 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Septemvri Sofia | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 8 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 7 |
A question about Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
- The Footlab AI model makes Lokomotiv Plovdiv the favourite at 39%, against 31% for a draw and 30% for Septemvri Sofia.
- Where and when is Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv played?
- Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv is played on November 21, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Dragalevtsi, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.