Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 15Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Dragalevtsi, Sofia
The Footlab model makes Lokomotiv Plovdiv the favourite at 38%, against 31% for a draw and 30% for Septemvri Sofia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
Lokomotiv Plovdiv starts as the favourite with a 106-point Elo edge (1,804 vs 1,699).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Septemvri Sofia have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Lokomotiv Plovdiv have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | CSKA 1948(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Spartak Varna(away) | 1-0 | First League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | CSKA Sofia(home) | 0-3 | First League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Levski Sofia(away) | 0-3 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv(away) | 1-2 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Dunav Ruse(home) | 1-2 | First League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Levski Sofia(away) | 0-2 | First League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Spartak Varna(away) | 0-1 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia(home) | 2-1 | First League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Ludogorets(away) | 0-1 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Septemvri Sofia win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Lokomotiv Plovdiv win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 26, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2-1 Septemvri Sofia | First League |
| Mar 13, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-0 Septemvri Sofia | First League |
| Oct 3, 2025 | Septemvri Sofia 2-2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv | First League |
| Apr 28, 2025 | Septemvri Sofia 2-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv | First League |
| Feb 16, 2025 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0-1 Septemvri Sofia | First League |
| Aug 26, 2024 | Septemvri Sofia 2-3 Lokomotiv Plovdiv | First League |
Last archived meeting: Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia on Jul 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Septemvri Sofia score 1.3 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Lokomotiv Plovdiv score 1.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Septemvri Sofia | 1.3 | 1.0 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1.0 | 1.1 | 5 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Septemvri Sofia sit 8th in First League (7 points from 6 matches) and Lokomotiv Plovdiv sit 11th (3 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Septemvri Sofia | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 7 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
- The Footlab model makes Lokomotiv Plovdiv the favourite at 38%, against 31% for a draw and 30% for Septemvri Sofia.
- Where and when is Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv played?
- Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv is played on November 21, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Dragalevtsi, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.