Bournemouth vs Arsenal: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 33Kick-off on April 24, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, Dorset
The Footlab AI model makes Arsenal the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Bournemouth. The most likely score is 1-1. If Arsenal wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bournemouth vs Arsenal?
Arsenal starts as the favourite with a 211-point Elo edge (2,419 vs 2,208).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Bournemouth vs Arsenal
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Bournemouth
4-2-3-1- 9Evanilson
- 16M. Tavernier
- 37Rayan
- 12T. Adams
- 10R. Christie
- 7D. Brooks
- 5J. Hill
- 14António Silva
- 15A. Smith
- 3A. Truffert
- 1Đ. Petrović
Arsenal
4-2-3-1- 29K. Havertz
- 41D. Rice
- 49M. Lewis-Skelly
- 8M. Ødegaard
- 7B. Saka
- 20N. Madueke
- 6Gabriel Magalhães
- 15E. Konsa
- 33R. Calafiori
- 4B. White
- 1David Raya
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 12:24 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bournemouth have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Arsenal have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Chelsea(away) | 1-5 | Premier League |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Liverpool(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Real Sociedad(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Brentford(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Lincoln(home) | 4-0 | League Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Lille(home) | 3-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Leeds(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Brighton(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Ipswich(away) | 4-2 | League Cup |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Sunderland(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Bournemouth wins, 1 draw, 2 Arsenal wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Arsenal 1-2 Bournemouth | Premier League |
| Jan 3, 2026 | Bournemouth 2-3 Arsenal | Premier League |
| May 3, 2025 | Arsenal 1-2 Bournemouth | Premier League |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Bournemouth 2-0 Arsenal | Premier League |
| Jul 25, 2024 | Arsenal 1-1 Bournemouth | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 4, 2024 | Arsenal 3-0 Bournemouth | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Arsenal vs Bournemouth on Apr 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Bournemouth score 2.5 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Arsenal score 2.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 2.5 | 1.6 | 1 | 13/15 | 11/15 |
| Arsenal | 2.0 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bournemouth sit 18th in Premier League (3 points from 6 matches) and Arsenal sit 2nd (15 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 15 |
| 18 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 3 |
A question about Bournemouth vs Arsenal?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bournemouth vs Arsenal?
- The Footlab AI model makes Arsenal the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Bournemouth.
- Where and when is Bournemouth vs Arsenal played?
- Bournemouth vs Arsenal is played on April 24, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Vitality Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.