Chelsea vs Manchester City: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 33Kick-off on April 24, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Stamford Bridge, London
The Footlab model makes Manchester City the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Chelsea. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chelsea vs Manchester City?
Manchester City starts as the favourite with a 197-point Elo edge (2,372 vs 2,175).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chelsea have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Manchester City have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Fulham(away) | 3-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Real Sociedad(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Johor Darul Takzim FC(away) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | AC Milan(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Juventus(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Bournemouth(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Arsenal(away) | 0-3 | Community Shield |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | K-League Stars(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Inter(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Chelsea win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Manchester City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Chelsea 0-1 Manchester City | FA Cup |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Chelsea 0-3 Manchester City | Premier League |
| Jan 4, 2026 | Manchester City 1-1 Chelsea | Premier League |
| Jan 25, 2025 | Manchester City 3-1 Chelsea | Premier League |
| Aug 18, 2024 | Chelsea 0-2 Manchester City | Premier League |
| Aug 3, 2024 | Manchester City 4-2 Chelsea | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Chelsea vs Manchester City on May 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Chelsea score 1.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Manchester City score 1.9 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Manchester City | 1.9 | 1.0 | 5 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chelsea sit 6th in Premier League (3 points from 1 matches) and Manchester City sit 7th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Chelsea | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Manchester City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chelsea vs Manchester City?
- The Footlab model makes Manchester City the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Chelsea.
- Where and when is Chelsea vs Manchester City played?
- Chelsea vs Manchester City is played on April 24, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Stamford Bridge, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.