Newcastle vs Ipswich: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 33Kick-off on April 24, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)St. James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne
The Footlab model makes Newcastle the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Ipswich. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Newcastle vs Ipswich?
Newcastle starts as the favourite with a 128-point Elo edge (2,151 vs 2,024).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Newcastle have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Ipswich have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Liverpool(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Strasbourg(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Everton(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Valencia(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sunderland(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Union Berlin(away) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Le Havre(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Wycombe(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 3 Newcastle win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Ipswich win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2025 | Newcastle 3-0 Ipswich | Premier League |
| Dec 21, 2024 | Ipswich 0-4 Newcastle | Premier League |
| Apr 17, 2017 | Ipswich 3-1 Newcastle | Championship |
| Oct 22, 2016 | Newcastle 3-0 Ipswich | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Newcastle score 1.4 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Ipswich score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
| Ipswich | 1.7 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Newcastle sit 11th in Premier League (1 points from 1 matches) and Ipswich sit 8th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Ipswich | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Newcastle vs Ipswich?
- The Footlab model makes Newcastle the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Ipswich.
- Where and when is Newcastle vs Ipswich played?
- Newcastle vs Ipswich is played on April 24, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at St. James' Park, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.