Leeds vs Liverpool: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 33Kick-off on April 24, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Elland Road, Leeds, West Yorkshire
The Footlab model makes Leeds the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Liverpool. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Leeds vs Liverpool?
A very open match: only 31 Elo points separate Leeds (2,174) and Liverpool (2,205).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Leeds have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Liverpool have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Augsburg(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Manchester United(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | RB Leipzig(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Liverpool(away) | 4-2 | Premier League - Summer Series |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Newcastle(away) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Como(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Monaco(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Leeds(home) | 2-4 | Premier League - Summer Series |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Wrexham(home) | 1-0 | Premier League - Summer Series |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Leeds win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Liverpool win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 2026 | Liverpool 2-4 Leeds | Premier League - Summer Series |
| Jan 1, 2026 | Liverpool 0-0 Leeds | Premier League |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Leeds 3-3 Liverpool | Premier League |
| Apr 17, 2023 | Leeds 1-6 Liverpool | Premier League |
| Oct 29, 2022 | Liverpool 1-2 Leeds | Premier League |
| Feb 23, 2022 | Liverpool 6-0 Leeds | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Leeds score 1.8 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Liverpool score 1.6 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds | 1.8 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Liverpool | 1.6 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Leeds sit 9th in Premier League (3 points from 1 matches) and Liverpool sit 10th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Leeds | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Liverpool | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Leeds vs Liverpool?
- The Footlab model makes Leeds the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Liverpool.
- Where and when is Leeds vs Liverpool played?
- Leeds vs Liverpool is played on April 24, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Elland Road, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.