Match

Bregalnica Štip vs Vardar Skopje: prediction and stats

First LeagueRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Gradski Stadion, Štip

Bregalnica ŠtipVardar Skopje

The Footlab model makes Vardar Skopje the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Bregalnica Štip. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Bregalnica Štip vs Vardar Skopje?

Vardar Skopje starts as the favourite with a 201-point Elo edge (1,775 vs 1,574).

Bregalnica Štip win28 %
Draw26 %
Vardar Skopje win45 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bregalnica Štip have 12 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats; Vardar Skopje have 10, 0 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Bregalnica Štip
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 21, 2026Bashkimi Kumanovo(home)3-0First League
Aug 16, 2026Shkendija(away)1-4First League
Aug 8, 2026Aresimi(home)4-0First League
Jul 25, 2026Vardar Skopje(away)0-2First League
May 23, 2026Pobeda(home)7-0Second League
Vardar Skopje
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 24, 2026Sileks(home)4-1First League
Aug 16, 2026Struga(away)0-1First League
Aug 9, 2026Shkendija(home)0-2First League
Jul 28, 2026Riga(away)2-5UEFA Europa Conference League
Jul 25, 2026Bregalnica Štip(home)2-0First League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Bregalnica Štip win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Vardar Skopje win(s).

DateScoreCompetition
Jul 25, 2026Vardar Skopje 2-0 Bregalnica ŠtipFirst League
May 1, 2024Bregalnica Štip 0-3 Vardar SkopjeFirst League
Feb 25, 2024Vardar Skopje 2-0 Bregalnica ŠtipFirst League
Oct 1, 2023Bregalnica Štip 0-0 Vardar SkopjeFirst League
May 3, 2017Bregalnica Štip 3-3 Vardar SkopjeFirst League
Mar 12, 2017Vardar Skopje 2-0 Bregalnica ŠtipFirst League

Last archived meeting: Vardar Skopje vs Bregalnica Štip on Jul 25, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Bregalnica Štip score 2.6 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Vardar Skopje score 2.4 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Bregalnica Štip2.60.795/159/15
Vardar Skopje2.41.175/158/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Bregalnica Štip sit 5th in First League (6 points from 4 matches) and Vardar Skopje sit 6th (6 points from 4 matches).

2026 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
5Bregalnica Štip4202866
6Vardar Skopje4202646

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Bregalnica Štip vs Vardar Skopje?
The Footlab model makes Vardar Skopje the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Bregalnica Štip.
Where and when is Bregalnica Štip vs Vardar Skopje played?
Bregalnica Štip vs Vardar Skopje is played on October 17, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Gradski Stadion, in the First League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Bregalnica Štip and Vardar Skopje

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