Bugesera vs Al Merreikh: prediction and stats
National Soccer LeagueRegular Season - 28Kick-off on April 17, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Bugesera Stadium, Nyamata
The Footlab AI model makes Al Merreikh the favourite at 35%, against 33% for a draw and 32% for Bugesera. The most likely score is 0-0. If Al Merreikh wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,523 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 17, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bugesera vs Al Merreikh?
A very open match: only 70 Elo points separate Bugesera (1,658) and Al Merreikh (1,729).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Bugesera vs Al Merreikh
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Bugesera
Not enough data to predict the Bugesera lineup.
Al Merreikh
4-3-3- 29Ramadan Agab
- 32S. Patiño
- 28A. Balouchy
- 7Mohamed Al Rashed
- 8Wagdi Awad
- 30Anas Mohamed
- 13Ahmed Yousif Tabanja
- 2Adam Babajide
- 33Dia Wah Mickaël
- 25Elsamani Saadeldin
- 16O. Ojo
Computed on October 17, 2026 at 07:16 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bugesera have 7 wins, 1 draw and 7 defeats; Al Merreikh have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Etincelles(home) | 2-0 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Kiyovu Sports(away) | 0-1 | National Soccer League |
| May 30, 2026 | Rutsiro(away) | 2-0 | National Soccer League |
| May 26, 2026 | Rayon Sports(away) | 0-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 16, 2026 | Mukura(away) | 2-2 | National Soccer League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | Amagaju(away) | 0-0 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Power Dynamos(away) | 1-0 | CAF Champions League |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Power Dynamos(home) | 1-0 | CAF Champions League |
| May 31, 2026 | Gorilla(away) | 1-3 | National Soccer League |
| May 27, 2026 | APR(home) | 1-2 | National Soccer League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Bugesera win, 0 draws, 1 Al Merreikh win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Al Merreikh 3-0 Bugesera | National Soccer League |
| Nov 27, 2025 | Bugesera 1-0 Al Merreikh | National Soccer League |
Last archived meeting: Al Merreikh vs Bugesera on Apr 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Bugesera score 1.1 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Al Merreikh score 1.2 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 32% probability of over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bugesera | 1.1 | 1.2 | 6 | 3/15 | 6/15 |
| Al Merreikh | 1.2 | 0.7 | 8 | 4/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bugesera sit 14th in National Soccer League (3 points from 2 matches) and Al Merreikh sit 16th (1 point from 1 match).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Bugesera | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 16 | Al Merreikh | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
A question about Bugesera vs Al Merreikh?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bugesera vs Al Merreikh?
- The Footlab AI model makes Al Merreikh the favourite at 35%, against 33% for a draw and 32% for Bugesera.
- Where and when is Bugesera vs Al Merreikh played?
- Bugesera vs Al Merreikh is played on April 17, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Bugesera Stadium, in the National Soccer League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 32% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.