Bugesera vs Etoile de l'Est: prediction and stats
National Soccer LeagueRegular Season - 30Kick-off on May 1, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Bugesera Stadium, Nyamata
The Footlab AI model makes Bugesera the favourite at 52%, against 28% for a draw and 20% for Etoile de l'Est. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.5% of the 2,615 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bugesera vs Etoile de l'Est?
Bugesera starts as the favourite with a 123-point Elo edge (1,658 vs 1,536).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Bugesera vs Etoile de l'Est
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Bugesera
Not enough data to predict the Bugesera lineup.
Etoile de l'Est
Not enough data to predict the Etoile de l'Est lineup.
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 06:48 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bugesera have 7 wins, 1 draw and 7 defeats; Etoile de l'Est have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Etincelles(home) | 2-0 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Kiyovu Sports(away) | 0-1 | National Soccer League |
| May 30, 2026 | Rutsiro(away) | 2-0 | National Soccer League |
| May 26, 2026 | Rayon Sports(away) | 0-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 16, 2026 | Mukura(away) | 2-2 | National Soccer League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Mukura(home) | 1-1 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Gicumbi(home) | 1-2 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | AS Kigali(home) | 0-0 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Amagaju(away) | 0-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 11, 2024 | Bugesera(home) | 0-3 | National Soccer League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 3 Bugesera wins, 1 draw, 0 Etoile de l'Est wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2024 | Etoile de l'Est 0-3 Bugesera | National Soccer League |
| Dec 12, 2023 | Bugesera 2-1 Etoile de l'Est | National Soccer League |
| Apr 22, 2022 | Etoile de l'Est 0-1 Bugesera | National Soccer League |
| Dec 17, 2021 | Bugesera 0-0 Etoile de l'Est | National Soccer League |
Last archived meeting: Etoile de l'Est vs Bugesera on May 11, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Bugesera score 1.1 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Etoile de l'Est score 0.6 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bugesera | 1.1 | 1.2 | 6 | 3/15 | 6/15 |
| Etoile de l'Est | 0.6 | 0.9 | 6 | 3/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bugesera sit 14th in National Soccer League (3 points from 2 matches) and Etoile de l'Est sit 18th (1 point from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Bugesera | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 18 | Etoile de l'Est | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
A question about Bugesera vs Etoile de l'Est?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bugesera vs Etoile de l'Est?
- The Footlab AI model makes Bugesera the favourite at 52%, against 28% for a draw and 20% for Etoile de l'Est.
- Where and when is Bugesera vs Etoile de l'Est played?
- Bugesera vs Etoile de l'Est is played on May 1, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Bugesera Stadium, in the National Soccer League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.5% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.