Marines vs Etincelles: prediction and stats
National Soccer LeagueRegular Season - 30Kick-off on May 1, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stade Umuganda, Gisenyi
The Footlab AI model makes Marines the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Etincelles. The most likely score is 1-1. If Marines wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.5% of the 2,564 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 17, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Marines vs Etincelles?
A very open match: only 2 Elo points separate Marines (1,647) and Etincelles (1,645).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Marines vs Etincelles
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Marines
Not enough data to predict the Marines lineup.
Etincelles
Not enough data to predict the Etincelles lineup.
Computed on October 17, 2026 at 11:58 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Marines have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Etincelles have 6, 6 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Kiyovu Sports(home) | 0-0 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 16, 2026 | APR(away) | 2-4 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 6, 2026 | AS Kigali(home) | 2-0 | National Soccer League |
| May 30, 2026 | Muhanga(home) | 3-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 24, 2026 | Musanze(home) | 1-1 | National Soccer League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Bugesera(away) | 0-2 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Musanze(home) | 1-0 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Gorilla(away) | 1-0 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Sunrise(home) | 0-0 | National Soccer League |
| May 30, 2026 | Al Hilal Omdurman(home) | 2-1 | National Soccer League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Marines wins, 2 draws, 1 Etincelles win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Marines 2-3 Etincelles | National Soccer League |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Etincelles 0-2 Marines | National Soccer League |
| Mar 30, 2025 | Etincelles 0-0 Marines | National Soccer League |
| Sep 15, 2024 | Marines 2-0 Etincelles | National Soccer League |
| Jan 27, 2024 | Etincelles 2-2 Marines | National Soccer League |
| Sep 2, 2023 | Marines 1-0 Etincelles | National Soccer League |
Last archived meeting: Marines vs Etincelles on May 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Marines score 1.6 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Etincelles score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marines | 1.6 | 1.4 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Etincelles | 1.1 | 1.1 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Marines sit 6th in National Soccer League (4 points from 3 matches) and Etincelles sit 3rd (7 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Etincelles | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Marines | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
A question about Marines vs Etincelles?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Marines vs Etincelles?
- The Footlab AI model makes Marines the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Etincelles.
- Where and when is Marines vs Etincelles played?
- Marines vs Etincelles is played on May 1, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Umuganda, in the National Soccer League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.5% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.