Where and when is Bulgaria U21 vs Portugal U21 played?

Bulgaria U21 vs Portugal U21 is played on September 25, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Trace Arena, in the UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Bulgaria U21 vs Portugal U21: prediction and stats

UEFA U21 Championship - QualificationGroup Stage - 18Kick-off on September 25, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Trace Arena, Stara Zagora

Bulgaria U21

Portugal U21

The Footlab model makes Portugal U21 the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Bulgaria U21. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Bulgaria U21 vs Portugal U21?

Portugal U21 starts as the favourite with a 256-point Elo edge (1,770 vs 1,514).

Bulgaria U21 win25 %

Draw26 %

Portugal U21 win49 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bulgaria U21 have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Portugal U21 have 12, 2 and 1.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Bulgaria U21
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 30, 2026	North Macedonia U21(home)	1-0	Friendlies
Mar 31, 2026	Azerbaijan U21(home)	0-0	UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification
Mar 27, 2026	Gibraltar U21(away)	1-0	UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification
Nov 18, 2025	Scotland U21(away)	0-1	UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification
Oct 14, 2025	Czechia U21(home)	2-1	UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification

Portugal U21
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Jun 3, 2026	Northern Ireland U21(home)	4-0	Friendlies
Mar 31, 2026	Scotland U21(home)	3-0	UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification
Mar 27, 2026	Azerbaijan U21(away)	4-0	UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification
Nov 18, 2025	Czechia U21(away)	0-0	UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification
Oct 14, 2025	Gibraltar U21(away)	11-0	UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Bulgaria U21 win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Portugal U21 win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Oct 10, 2025	Portugal U21 3-0 Bulgaria U21	UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification

Last archived meeting: Portugal U21 vs Bulgaria U21 on Oct 10, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Bulgaria U21 score 1.4 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Portugal U21 score 3.2 and concede 0.2. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Bulgaria U21	1.4	0.9	7	6/15	7/15
Portugal U21	3.2	0.2	12	2/15	10/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Bulgaria U21 sit 4th in UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification (11 points from 7 matches) and Portugal U21 sit 1st (19 points from 7 matches).

2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Portugal U21	7	6	1	0	28	0	19
4	Bulgaria U21	7	3	2	2	7	6	11

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Bulgaria U21 vs Portugal U21?: The Footlab model makes Portugal U21 the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Bulgaria U21.
Where and when is Bulgaria U21 vs Portugal U21 played?: Bulgaria U21 vs Portugal U21 is played on September 25, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Trace Arena, in the UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.