Portugal U21 vs Gibraltar U21: prediction and stats
UEFA U21 Championship - QualificationGroup Stage - 20Kick-off on September 30, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Nacional, Jamor, Oeiras
The Footlab model makes Portugal U21 the favourite at 87%, against 9% for a draw and 4% for Gibraltar U21. The most likely score is 3-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Portugal U21 vs Gibraltar U21?
Portugal U21 is a heavy favourite: 1,770 Elo points against 1,222, a 548-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Portugal U21 have 12 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats; Gibraltar U21 have 1, 0 and 14.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 3, 2026 | Northern Ireland U21(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Scotland U21(home) | 3-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Azerbaijan U21(away) | 4-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Czechia U21(away) | 0-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Gibraltar U21(away) | 11-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2026 | Czechia U21(away) | 0-5 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Bulgaria U21(home) | 0-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Azerbaijan U21(home) | 0-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 15, 2025 | Scotland U21(home) | 0-2 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Portugal U21(home) | 0-11 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 3 Portugal U21 win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Gibraltar U21 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2025 | Gibraltar U21 0-11 Portugal U21 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Oct 13, 2020 | Gibraltar U21 0-3 Portugal U21 | UEFA U21 Championship |
| Sep 5, 2019 | Portugal U21 4-0 Gibraltar U21 | UEFA U21 Championship |
Last archived meeting: Gibraltar U21 vs Portugal U21 on Oct 14, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Portugal U21 score 3.2 and concede 0.2 goals per match over their last 15; Gibraltar U21 score 0.2 and concede 3.9. The model gives a 77% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal U21 | 3.2 | 0.2 | 12 | 2/15 | 10/15 |
| Gibraltar U21 | 0.2 | 3.9 | 0 | 2/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Portugal U21 sit 1st in UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification (19 points from 7 matches) and Gibraltar U21 sit 6th (0 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portugal U21 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 19 |
| 6 | Gibraltar U21 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 37 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Portugal U21 vs Gibraltar U21?
- The Footlab model makes Portugal U21 the favourite at 87%, against 9% for a draw and 4% for Gibraltar U21.
- Where and when is Portugal U21 vs Gibraltar U21 played?
- Portugal U21 vs Gibraltar U21 is played on September 30, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Nacional, in the UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 77% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 28, 2026Belgium U21vsWales U21
- Sep 28, 2026Denmark U21vsBelarus U21
- Sep 29, 2026Estonia U21vsFrance U21
- Sep 29, 2026Iceland U21vsSwitzerland U21
- Sep 29, 2026Norway U21vsBosnia-Herzegovina U21
- Sep 29, 2026Republic of Ireland U21vsKazakhstan U21
- Sep 29, 2026Slovenia U21vsIsrael U21
- Sep 30, 2026Czechia U21vsBulgaria U21