Belgium U21 vs Belarus U21: prediction and stats
UEFA U21 Championship - QualificationGroup Stage - 18Kick-off on September 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, Heverlee
The Footlab model makes Belgium U21 the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Belarus U21. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Belgium U21 vs Belarus U21?
Belgium U21 starts as the favourite with a 184-point Elo edge (1,618 vs 1,434).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Belgium U21 have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Belarus U21 have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2026 | Netherlands U21(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Austria U21(home) | 1-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 14, 2025 | Austria U21(away) | 0-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Denmark U21(home) | 2-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Wales U21(away) | 7-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 8, 2026 | Kazakhstan U21(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Kazakhstan U21(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Austria U21(away) | 1-2 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Wales U21(away) | 0-2 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Denmark U21(home) | 0-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Belgium U21 win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Belarus U21 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2025 | Belarus U21 1-1 Belgium U21 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
Last archived meeting: Belarus U21 vs Belgium U21 on Sep 4, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Belgium U21 score 1.5 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Belarus U21 score 1.1 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium U21 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 5 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| Belarus U21 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Belgium U21 sit 1st in UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification (10 points from 5 matches) and Belarus U21 sit 5th (4 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belgium U21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Belarus U21 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Belgium U21 vs Belarus U21?
- The Footlab model makes Belgium U21 the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Belarus U21.
- Where and when is Belgium U21 vs Belarus U21 played?
- Belgium U21 vs Belarus U21 is played on September 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, in the UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
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- Sep 25, 2026Estonia U21vsFaroe Islands U21
- Sep 25, 2026Finland U21vsSpain U21
- Sep 25, 2026Azerbaijan U21vsCzechia U21
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