Bunyodkor vs Mash'al: prediction and stats
Super LeagueRegular Season - 25Kick-off on October 23, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Milliy Stadium, Tashkent
The Footlab model makes Bunyodkor the favourite at 58%, against 25% for a draw and 17% for Mash'al. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bunyodkor vs Mash'al?
Bunyodkor starts as the favourite with a 161-point Elo edge (1,627 vs 1,466).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bunyodkor have 5 wins, 1 draws and 9 defeats; Mash'al have 1, 1 and 13.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Kokand-1912(home) | 0-1 | Super League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Navbahor(away) | 3-4 | Super League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Olmaliq(home) | 2-3 | Super League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Pakhtakor(home) | 0-1 | Super League |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Buxoro(away) | 0-1 | Super League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Andijan(home) | 0-1 | Super League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Qizilqum(away) | 0-2 | Super League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Xorazm(away) | 0-2 | Super League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Sogdiana(home) | 1-3 | Super League |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Olmaliq(away) | 1-2 | Super League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Bunyodkor win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Mash'al win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2026 | Mash'al 0-1 Bunyodkor | Super League |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Bunyodkor 2-1 Mash'al | Super League |
| May 26, 2025 | Mash'al 1-1 Bunyodkor | Super League |
| Aug 6, 2021 | Mash'al 1-1 Bunyodkor | Super League |
| Mar 10, 2021 | Bunyodkor 1-0 Mash'al | Super League |
| Sep 16, 2020 | Mash'al 1-2 Bunyodkor | Super League |
How many goals should we expect?
Bunyodkor score 1.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Mash'al score 0.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bunyodkor | 1.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Mash'al | 0.5 | 1.7 | 1 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bunyodkor sit 5th in Super League (19 points from 11 matches) and Mash'al sit 16th (0 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Bunyodkor | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 11 | 19 |
| 13 | Bunyodkor | 18 | 6 | 1 | 11 | 19 | 27 | 19 |
| 16 | Mash'al | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| 16 | Mash'al | 18 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 8 | 32 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bunyodkor vs Mash'al?
- The Footlab model makes Bunyodkor the favourite at 58%, against 25% for a draw and 17% for Mash'al.
- Where and when is Bunyodkor vs Mash'al played?
- Bunyodkor vs Mash'al is played on October 23, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Milliy Stadium, in the Super League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.