Burgos vs Leganes: prediction and stats
Segunda DivisiónRegular Season - 24Kick-off on January 31, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de El Plantío, Burgos
The Footlab model makes Burgos the favourite at 48%, against 28% for a draw and 24% for Leganes. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Burgos vs Leganes?
A very open match: only 75 Elo points separate Burgos (2,005) and Leganes (1,930).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Burgos have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Leganes have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sporting Gijon(away) | 0-1 | Segunda División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Cordoba(home) | 3-2 | Segunda División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cultural Leonesa(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Athletic Club(home) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Unionistas de Salamanca(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Oviedo(away) | 1-0 | Segunda División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Girona(away) | 1-1 | Segunda División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Tenerife(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Mérida AD(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Al-Rayyan SC(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Burgos win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Leganes win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | Burgos 2-1 Leganes | Segunda División |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Leganes 1-2 Burgos | Segunda División |
| Jan 22, 2024 | Leganes 2-0 Burgos | Segunda División |
| Oct 4, 2023 | Burgos 1-0 Leganes | Segunda División |
| May 12, 2023 | Burgos 0-3 Leganes | Segunda División |
| Sep 18, 2022 | Leganes 0-0 Burgos | Segunda División |
How many goals should we expect?
Burgos score 1.0 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Leganes score 0.9 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burgos | 1.0 | 0.9 | 8 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| Leganes | 0.9 | 0.9 | 8 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Burgos sit 10th in Segunda División (3 points from 2 matches) and Leganes sit 3rd (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Leganes | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Burgos | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Burgos vs Leganes?
- The Footlab model makes Burgos the favourite at 48%, against 28% for a draw and 24% for Leganes.
- Where and when is Burgos vs Leganes played?
- Burgos vs Leganes is played on January 31, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de El Plantío, in the Segunda División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.