Stoke City vs Burnley: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 40Kick-off on April 3, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)bet365 Stadium, Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire
The Footlab AI model makes Stoke City the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Burnley. The most likely score is 1-1. If Stoke City wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.5% of the 3,618 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Stoke City vs Burnley?
A very open match: only 6 Elo points separate Stoke City (1,960) and Burnley (1,966).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Stoke City vs Burnley
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Stoke City
3-4-3- 7J. McGlynn
- 11L. Cissé
- 13J. Devenny
- 2B. Johnson
- 8E. Galbraith
- 27El Hadji Djibril Soumaré
- 17E. Bocat
- 16B. Wilmot
- 5L. Graham
- 18B. Lawal
- 1V. Johansson
Burnley
4-2-3-1- 9J. Vardy
- 29J. Laurent
- 3Max Alleyne
- 19L. Ramazani
- 5R. Hatate
- 7J. Bruun Larsen
- 44Igor
- 2K. Walker
- 23Lucas Pires
- 18H. Ekdal
- 37G. Coudert
Computed on October 26, 2026 at 06:25 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Stoke City have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Burnley have 1, 7 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Bristol City(home) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Derby(away) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Middlesbrough(home) | 2-3 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Bolton(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Sheffield Utd(home) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Lincoln(away) | 1-4 | Championship |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Wolves(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Charlton(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Watford(away) | 4-0 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Derby(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Stoke City win, 3 draws, 2 Burnley wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 2025 | Stoke City 1-0 Burnley | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jan 1, 2025 | Burnley 0-0 Stoke City | Championship |
| Nov 30, 2024 | Stoke City 0-2 Burnley | Championship |
| Dec 30, 2022 | Stoke City 0-1 Burnley | Championship |
| Oct 5, 2022 | Burnley 1-1 Stoke City | Championship |
| Apr 22, 2018 | Stoke City 1-1 Burnley | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Stoke City score 1.5 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Burnley score 1.2 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke City | 1.5 | 1.2 | 5 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Burnley | 1.2 | 1.8 | 2 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Stoke City sit 9th in Championship (20 points from 12 matches) and Burnley sit 22nd (8 points from 12 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Stoke City | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 16 | 20 |
| 22 | Burnley | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 25 | 8 |
A question about Stoke City vs Burnley?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Stoke City vs Burnley?
- The Footlab AI model makes Stoke City the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Burnley.
- Where and when is Stoke City vs Burnley played?
- Stoke City vs Burnley is played on April 3, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at bet365 Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.5% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.