Burnley vs Charlton: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 13, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Turf Moor, Burnley
The Footlab model makes Burnley the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Charlton. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Burnley vs Charlton?
A very open match: only 61 Elo points separate Burnley (1,926) and Charlton (1,865).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Burnley have 0 wins, 6 draws and 9 defeats; Charlton have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | West Brom(away) | 1-3 | Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | West Ham(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Notts County(home) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Torino(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Espanyol(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | West Ham(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Derby(home) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cheltenham(away) | 3-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Reading(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Colchester(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Burnley win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Charlton win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2016 | Charlton 0-3 Burnley | Championship |
| Dec 19, 2015 | Burnley 4-0 Charlton | Championship |
| Mar 22, 2014 | Charlton 0-3 Burnley | Championship |
| Sep 28, 2013 | Burnley 3-0 Charlton | Championship |
| Mar 2, 2013 | Charlton 0-1 Burnley | Championship |
| Nov 17, 2012 | Burnley 0-1 Charlton | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Burnley score 1.0 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Charlton score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | 1.0 | 2.1 | 0 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
| Charlton | 1.3 | 1.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Burnley sit 18th in Championship (1 points from 2 matches) and Charlton sit 3rd (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Charlton | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 18 | Burnley | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Burnley vs Charlton?
- The Footlab model makes Burnley the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Charlton.
- Where and when is Burnley vs Charlton played?
- Burnley vs Charlton is played on October 13, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Turf Moor, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.