Norwich vs Southampton: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 14, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Carrow Road, Norwich, Norfolk
The Footlab AI model makes Southampton the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Norwich. The most likely score is 1-1. If Southampton wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Norwich vs Southampton?
Southampton starts as the favourite with a 110-point Elo edge (2,114 vs 2,004).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Norwich vs Southampton
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Norwich
4-2-3-1- 21M. Touré
- 23K. McLean
- 11A. Brooks
- 7P. Mattsson
- 49A. Musaba
- 29O. Schwartau
- 33J. Córdoba
- 15Ruairi McConville
- 14B. Chrisene
- 3J. Stacey
- 1V. Kovačević
Southampton
4-2-3-1- 9C. Larin
- 7Léo Scienza
- 4F. Downes
- 10F. Azaz
- 30J. Ward-Prowse
- 27K. Matsuki
- 14J. Bree
- 13K. Schlotterbeck
- 3R. Manning
- 15N. Wood-Gordon
- 1Daniel Peretz
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 11:09 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Norwich have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Southampton have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Bolton(home) | 3-4 | Championship |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Manchester City(away) | 0-5 | League Cup |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Middlesbrough(away) | 3-4 | Championship |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Birmingham(home) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Sheffield Utd(away) | 3-1 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Wrexham(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Bristol City(home) | 4-1 | Championship |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Swansea(home) | 3-1 | Championship |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Lincoln(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Birmingham(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Norwich win, 2 draws, 3 Southampton wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | Southampton 1-0 Norwich | Championship |
| Dec 13, 2025 | Norwich 2-1 Southampton | Championship |
| Aug 26, 2025 | Norwich 0-3 Southampton | League Cup |
| Jan 1, 2024 | Norwich 1-1 Southampton | Championship |
| Aug 12, 2023 | Southampton 4-4 Norwich | Championship |
| Feb 25, 2022 | Southampton 2-0 Norwich | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Southampton vs Norwich on Mar 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Norwich score 1.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Southampton score 2.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norwich | 1.7 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
| Southampton | 2.0 | 1.1 | 3 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Norwich sit 17th in Championship (9 points from 8 matches) and Southampton sit 13th (10 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Southampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 10 | 10 |
| 17 | Norwich | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 17 | 9 |
A question about Norwich vs Southampton?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Norwich vs Southampton?
- The Footlab AI model makes Southampton the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Norwich.
- Where and when is Norwich vs Southampton played?
- Norwich vs Southampton is played on October 14, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Carrow Road, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.