Stoke City vs Middlesbrough: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 13, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)bet365 Stadium, Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire
The Footlab AI model makes Middlesbrough the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Stoke City. The most likely score is 1-1. If Middlesbrough wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Stoke City vs Middlesbrough?
Middlesbrough starts as the favourite with a 116-point Elo edge (2,038 vs 1,922).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Stoke City vs Middlesbrough
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Stoke City
3-5-2- 11L. Cissé
- 7J. McGlynn
- 8E. Galbraith
- 2B. Johnson
- 27El Hadji Djibril Soumaré
- 17E. Bocat
- 13J. Devenny
- 16B. Wilmot
- 5L. Graham
- 40M. Talovierov
- 1V. Johansson
Middlesbrough
4-2-3-1- 7W. Lankshear
- 10A. Morris
- 8R. McGree
- 11A. Cozier-Duberry
- 6S. Berhalter
- 14M. Peart-Harris
- 2C. Brittain
- 12L. Ayling
- 29A. Malanda
- 4A. Phillips
- 1R. Vítek
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:52 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Stoke City have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Middlesbrough have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Sheffield Utd(home) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Watford(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Cardiff(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Charlton(home) | 4-0 | Championship |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Norwich(home) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Birmingham(away) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Millwall(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Norwich(home) | 4-3 | Championship |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Crystal Palace(away) | 0-3 | League Cup |
| Sep 5, 2026 | QPR(away) | 1-0 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Stoke City wins, 1 draw, 3 Middlesbrough wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2026 | Stoke City 1-2 Middlesbrough | Championship |
| Sep 30, 2025 | Middlesbrough 0-0 Stoke City | Championship |
| Feb 25, 2025 | Stoke City 1-3 Middlesbrough | Championship |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Middlesbrough 2-0 Stoke City | Championship |
| Aug 27, 2024 | Middlesbrough 0-5 Stoke City | League Cup |
| Mar 2, 2024 | Stoke City 2-0 Middlesbrough | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Stoke City vs Middlesbrough on Jan 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Stoke City score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Middlesbrough score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke City | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
| Middlesbrough | 1.7 | 1.5 | 2 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Stoke City sit 7th in Championship (13 points from 8 matches) and Middlesbrough sit 3rd (15 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 12 | 15 |
| 7 | Stoke City | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 13 |
A question about Stoke City vs Middlesbrough?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Stoke City vs Middlesbrough?
- The Footlab AI model makes Middlesbrough the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Stoke City.
- Where and when is Stoke City vs Middlesbrough played?
- Stoke City vs Middlesbrough is played on October 13, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at bet365 Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.