Burnley vs Birmingham: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 17Kick-off on November 25, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Turf Moor, Burnley
The Footlab AI model makes Birmingham the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Burnley. The most likely score is 1-1. If Birmingham wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,457 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Burnley vs Birmingham?
A very open match: only 61 Elo points separate Burnley (1,939) and Birmingham (2,000).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Burnley vs Birmingham
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Burnley
4-2-3-1- 11Z. Amdouni
- 29J. Laurent
- 3Max Alleyne
- 7J. Bruun Larsen
- 19L. Ramazani
- 5R. Hatate
- 44Igor
- 2K. Walker
- 15A. Ahmedhodžić
- 23Lucas Pires
- 37G. Coudert
Birmingham
4-2-3-1- 9A. Priske
- 24T. Iwata
- 28J. Stansfield
- 17L. Millar
- 14J. Solis
- 7Carlos Vicente
- 26B. Osayi-Samuel
- 4C. Klarer
- 5P. Neumann
- 20A. Cochrane
- 1J. Beadle
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 09:23 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Burnley have 1 win, 8 draws and 6 defeats; Birmingham have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Charlton(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Watford(away) | 4-0 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Derby(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Swansea(away) | 1-3 | Championship |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Wrexham(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Preston(home) | 4-0 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | West Brom(away) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Middlesbrough(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Derby(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Norwich(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Burnley wins, 3 draws, 0 Birmingham wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2022 | Burnley 3-0 Birmingham | Championship |
| Oct 19, 2022 | Birmingham 1-1 Burnley | Championship |
| Apr 16, 2016 | Birmingham 1-2 Burnley | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2015 | Burnley 2-2 Birmingham | Championship |
| Mar 12, 2014 | Birmingham 3-3 Burnley | Championship |
| Sep 17, 2013 | Burnley 3-0 Birmingham | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Burnley vs Birmingham on Dec 27, 2022
How many goals should we expect?
Burnley score 1.3 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Birmingham score 1.6 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
| Birmingham | 1.6 | 1.3 | 5 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Burnley sit 21st in Championship (8 points from 10 matches) and Birmingham sit 4th (17 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Birmingham | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 17 | 11 | 17 |
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 19 | 8 |
A question about Burnley vs Birmingham?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Burnley vs Birmingham?
- The Footlab AI model makes Birmingham the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Burnley.
- Where and when is Burnley vs Birmingham played?
- Burnley vs Birmingham is played on November 25, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Turf Moor, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.