Burnley vs Birmingham: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 17Kick-off on November 25, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Turf Moor, Burnley
The Footlab model makes Burnley the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Birmingham. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Burnley vs Birmingham?
A very open match: only 13 Elo points separate Burnley (1,907) and Birmingham (1,920).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Burnley have 0 wins, 6 draws and 9 defeats; Birmingham have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | West Brom(away) | 1-3 | Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | West Ham(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Notts County(home) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Torino(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Espanyol(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bristol City(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sheffield Utd(away) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Swansea(away) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Barcelona(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Crewe(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Burnley win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Birmingham win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2022 | Burnley 3-0 Birmingham | Championship |
| Oct 19, 2022 | Birmingham 1-1 Burnley | Championship |
| Apr 16, 2016 | Birmingham 1-2 Burnley | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2015 | Burnley 2-2 Birmingham | Championship |
| Mar 12, 2014 | Birmingham 3-3 Burnley | Championship |
| Sep 17, 2013 | Burnley 3-0 Birmingham | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Burnley vs Birmingham on Dec 27, 2022
How many goals should we expect?
Burnley score 1.0 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Birmingham score 1.4 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | 1.0 | 2.1 | 0 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
| Birmingham | 1.4 | 1.0 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Burnley sit 18th in Championship (1 points from 2 matches) and Birmingham sit 13th (2 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Birmingham | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 18 | Burnley | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Burnley vs Birmingham?
- The Footlab model makes Burnley the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Birmingham.
- Where and when is Burnley vs Birmingham played?
- Burnley vs Birmingham is played on November 25, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Turf Moor, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.