Cardiff vs Watford: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 13, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Cardiff City Stadium, Caerdydd
The Footlab AI model makes Cardiff the favourite at 59%, against 23% for a draw and 18% for Watford. The most likely score is 1-1. If Cardiff wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cardiff vs Watford?
Cardiff starts as the favourite with a 145-point Elo edge (1,994 vs 1,849).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Cardiff vs Watford
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Cardiff
4-2-3-1- 9Y. Salech
- 18A. Robertson
- 11O. Tanner
- 8J. Moylan
- 16C. Willock
- 27J. Colwill
- 38P. Ng
- 3J. Bagan
- 4G. Osho
- 5K. Bielik
- 1N. Trott
Watford
4-2-3-1- 20M. Doumbia
- 5H. Kyprianou
- 17Iker Bravo
- 39E. Kayembe
- 21Amin Nabizada
- 11R. Vata
- 6M. Pollock
- 4K. Keben
- 33J. Zemura
- 3S. Coulibaly
- 1F. Ravaglia
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:53 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cardiff have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Watford have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Charlton(home) | 3-1 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Bolton(away) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Stoke City(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Portsmouth(away) | 0-2 | Championship |
| Sep 2, 2026 | QPR(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | Bristol City(away) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Stoke City(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Preston(home) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Sep 5, 2026 | West Brom(away) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Swansea(away) | 0-2 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Cardiff wins, 2 draws, 1 Watford win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2025 | Cardiff 1-1 Watford | Championship |
| Dec 29, 2024 | Watford 1-2 Cardiff | Championship |
| Feb 3, 2024 | Watford 0-1 Cardiff | Championship |
| Oct 7, 2023 | Cardiff 1-1 Watford | Championship |
| Apr 19, 2023 | Watford 1-3 Cardiff | Championship |
| Nov 2, 2022 | Cardiff 1-2 Watford | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Cardiff score 2.2 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Watford score 1.0 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
| Watford | 1.0 | 1.6 | 2 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cardiff sit 21st in Championship (7 points from 8 matches) and Watford sit 20th (8 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Watford | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 7 |
A question about Cardiff vs Watford?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cardiff vs Watford?
- The Footlab AI model makes Cardiff the favourite at 59%, against 23% for a draw and 18% for Watford.
- Where and when is Cardiff vs Watford played?
- Cardiff vs Watford is played on October 13, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Cardiff City Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.