Burnley vs Southampton: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 45Kick-off on April 24, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Turf Moor, Burnley
The Footlab AI model makes Southampton the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Burnley. The most likely score is 1-1. If Southampton wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.6% of the 3,825 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 29, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Burnley vs Southampton?
Southampton starts as the favourite with a 191-point Elo edge (2,119 vs 1,928).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Burnley vs Southampton
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Burnley
4-2-3-1- 9J. Vardy
- 29J. Laurent
- 3Max Alleyne
- 19L. Ramazani
- 5R. Hatate
- 7J. Bruun Larsen
- 44Igor
- 2K. Walker
- 23Lucas Pires
- 18H. Ekdal
- 37G. Coudert
Southampton
4-2-3-1- 11L. Dobbin
- 10F. Azaz
- 30J. Ward-Prowse
- 7Léo Scienza
- 27K. Matsuki
- 4F. Downes
- 13K. Schlotterbeck
- 5J. Stephens
- 14J. Bree
- 3R. Manning
- 1Daniel Peretz
Computed on October 29, 2026 at 07:42 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Burnley have 1 win, 7 draws and 7 defeats; Southampton have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Lincoln(away) | 1-4 | Championship |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Wolves(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Charlton(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Watford(away) | 4-0 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Derby(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | West Ham(away) | 3-2 | Championship |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Bolton(home) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Norwich(away) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Portsmouth(home) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Wrexham(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Burnley wins, 1 draw, 2 Southampton wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2025 | Southampton 0-1 Burnley | FA Cup |
| Apr 21, 2022 | Burnley 2-0 Southampton | Premier League |
| Oct 23, 2021 | Southampton 2-2 Burnley | Premier League |
| Apr 4, 2021 | Southampton 3-2 Burnley | Premier League |
| Sep 26, 2020 | Burnley 0-1 Southampton | Premier League |
| Feb 15, 2020 | Southampton 1-2 Burnley | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Southampton vs Burnley on Feb 8, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Burnley score 1.2 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Southampton score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | 1.2 | 1.8 | 2 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
| Southampton | 1.9 | 1.1 | 4 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Burnley sit 22nd in Championship (8 points from 12 matches) and Southampton sit 6th (20 points from 12 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Southampton | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 24 | 12 | 20 |
| 22 | Burnley | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 25 | 8 |
A question about Burnley vs Southampton?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Burnley vs Southampton?
- The Footlab AI model makes Southampton the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Burnley.
- Where and when is Burnley vs Southampton played?
- Burnley vs Southampton is played on April 24, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Turf Moor, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.