Burnley vs Southampton: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 45Kick-off on April 24, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Turf Moor, Burnley
The Footlab model makes Southampton the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Burnley. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Burnley vs Southampton?
Southampton starts as the favourite with a 127-point Elo edge (2,039 vs 1,911).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Burnley have 0 wins, 6 draws and 9 defeats; Southampton have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | West Brom(away) | 1-3 | Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | West Ham(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Notts County(home) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Torino(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Espanyol(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Stoke City(home) | 3-1 | Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Watford(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Colchester(away) | 2-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Preußen Münster(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Eintracht Braunschweig(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Burnley win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Southampton win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2025 | Southampton 0-1 Burnley | FA Cup |
| Apr 21, 2022 | Burnley 2-0 Southampton | Premier League |
| Oct 23, 2021 | Southampton 2-2 Burnley | Premier League |
| Apr 4, 2021 | Southampton 3-2 Burnley | Premier League |
| Sep 26, 2020 | Burnley 0-1 Southampton | Premier League |
| Feb 15, 2020 | Southampton 1-2 Burnley | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Southampton vs Burnley on Feb 8, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Burnley score 1.0 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Southampton score 1.9 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | 1.0 | 2.1 | 0 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
| Southampton | 1.9 | 1.0 | 4 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Burnley sit 18th in Championship (1 points from 2 matches) and Southampton sit 24th (-1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Burnley | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| 24 | Southampton | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Burnley vs Southampton?
- The Footlab model makes Southampton the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Burnley.
- Where and when is Burnley vs Southampton played?
- Burnley vs Southampton is played on April 24, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Turf Moor, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.