Bristol City vs Derby: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 45Kick-off on April 24, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Ashton Gate Stadium, Bristol
The Footlab AI model makes Bristol City the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Derby. The most likely score is 1-1. If Bristol City wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 2,919 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bristol City vs Derby?
A very open match: only 29 Elo points separate Bristol City (1,935) and Derby (1,906).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Bristol City vs Derby
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Bristol City
4-2-3-1- 23D. Ballard
- 12J. Knight
- 10S. Twine
- 7Y. Hirakawa
- 21Rio Cardines
- 27G. Yah
- 19G. Tanner
- 5R. Atkinson
- 3C. Pring
- 15L. McNally
- 1S. Tickle
Derby
4-2-3-1- 9C. Morris
- 11S. Szmodics
- 8B. Clark
- 4D. Ozoh
- 16M. Fuseini
- 20A. Mowatt
- 28D. Sanderson
- 26R. Hedges
- 23J. Ward
- 6S. Langås
- 31J. Vickers
Computed on October 21, 2026 at 08:35 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bristol City have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Derby have 2, 4 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Sheffield Utd(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Blackburn(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Charlton(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Crystal Palace(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Watford(home) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Stoke City(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Oct 14, 2026 | QPR(away) | 1-4 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Wrexham(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Burnley(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Birmingham(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Bristol City wins, 1 draw, 2 Derby wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 30, 2026 | Bristol City 0-5 Derby | Championship |
| Aug 22, 2025 | Derby 1-1 Bristol City | Championship |
| Jan 4, 2025 | Bristol City 1-0 Derby | Championship |
| Aug 31, 2024 | Derby 3-0 Bristol City | Championship |
| Apr 23, 2022 | Derby 1-3 Bristol City | Championship |
| Dec 4, 2021 | Bristol City 1-0 Derby | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Bristol City vs Derby on Jan 30, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Bristol City score 1.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Derby score 0.9 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol City | 1.0 | 1.1 | 3 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
| Derby | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bristol City sit 16th in Championship (14 points from 11 matches) and Derby sit 23rd (6 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Bristol City | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 15 | 14 |
| 23 | Derby | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 20 | 6 |
A question about Bristol City vs Derby?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bristol City vs Derby?
- The Footlab AI model makes Bristol City the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Derby.
- Where and when is Bristol City vs Derby played?
- Bristol City vs Derby is played on April 24, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Ashton Gate Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.