Bristol City vs Derby: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 45Kick-off on April 24, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Ashton Gate Stadium, Bristol
The Footlab model makes Derby the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Bristol City. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bristol City vs Derby?
A very open match: only 41 Elo points separate Bristol City (1,834) and Derby (1,875).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bristol City have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Derby have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Birmingham(away) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Millwall(home) | 0-2 | Championship |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Walsall(home) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Exeter City(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Plymouth(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cardiff(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Charlton(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Lincoln(home) | 1-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Rotherham(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Burton Albion(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Bristol City win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Derby win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 30, 2026 | Bristol City 0-5 Derby | Championship |
| Aug 22, 2025 | Derby 1-1 Bristol City | Championship |
| Jan 4, 2025 | Bristol City 1-0 Derby | Championship |
| Aug 31, 2024 | Derby 3-0 Bristol City | Championship |
| Apr 23, 2022 | Derby 1-3 Bristol City | Championship |
| Dec 4, 2021 | Bristol City 1-0 Derby | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Bristol City vs Derby on Jan 30, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Bristol City score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Derby score 1.4 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol City | 1.3 | 1.4 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Derby | 1.4 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bristol City sit 19th in Championship (1 points from 2 matches) and Derby sit 16th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Derby | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| 19 | Bristol City | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bristol City vs Derby?
- The Footlab model makes Derby the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Bristol City.
- Where and when is Bristol City vs Derby played?
- Bristol City vs Derby is played on April 24, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Ashton Gate Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.