Southampton vs Sheffield Utd: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 46Kick-off on May 1, 2027 at 11:30 AM (UTC)St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton, Hampshire
The Footlab model makes Southampton the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Sheffield Utd. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Southampton vs Sheffield Utd?
Southampton starts as the favourite with a 111-point Elo edge (2,034 vs 1,924).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Southampton have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Sheffield Utd have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Stoke City(home) | 3-1 | Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Watford(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Colchester(away) | 2-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Preußen Münster(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Eintracht Braunschweig(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Swansea(away) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Birmingham(home) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Mansfield Town(away) | 3-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | VfL Bochum(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Rotherham(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Southampton win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Sheffield Utd win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2026 | Southampton 1-0 Sheffield Utd | Championship |
| Sep 30, 2025 | Sheffield Utd 1-2 Southampton | Championship |
| Sep 21, 2021 | Sheffield Utd 2-2 Southampton | League Cup |
| Mar 6, 2021 | Sheffield Utd 0-2 Southampton | Premier League |
| Dec 13, 2020 | Southampton 3-0 Sheffield Utd | Premier League |
| Jul 26, 2020 | Southampton 3-1 Sheffield Utd | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Southampton vs Sheffield Utd on Jan 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Southampton score 1.9 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Sheffield Utd score 1.5 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | 1.9 | 1.0 | 4 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| Sheffield Utd | 1.5 | 0.8 | 7 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Southampton sit 24th in Championship (-1 points from 2 matches) and Sheffield Utd sit 15th (2 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Sheffield Utd | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 24 | Southampton | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Southampton vs Sheffield Utd?
- The Footlab model makes Southampton the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Sheffield Utd.
- Where and when is Southampton vs Sheffield Utd played?
- Southampton vs Sheffield Utd is played on May 1, 2027 at 11:30 AM (UTC) at St. Mary's Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.