Watford vs Birmingham: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 45Kick-off on April 24, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Vicarage Road, Watford
The Footlab AI model makes Birmingham the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Watford. The most likely score is 1-1. If Birmingham wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 2,953 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 22, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Watford vs Birmingham?
Birmingham starts as the favourite with a 197-point Elo edge (2,040 vs 1,843).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Watford vs Birmingham
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Watford
4-2-3-1- 9L. Kjerrumgaard
- 5H. Kyprianou
- 39E. Kayembe
- 17Iker Bravo
- 20M. Doumbia
- 7O. Maamma
- 6M. Pollock
- 4K. Keben
- 3S. Coulibaly
- 23O. Traoré
- 1F. Ravaglia
Birmingham
4-2-3-1- 9A. Priske
- 24T. Iwata
- 28J. Stansfield
- 17L. Millar
- 14J. Solis
- 16P. Roberts
- 26B. Osayi-Samuel
- 4C. Klarer
- 5P. Neumann
- 20A. Cochrane
- 1J. Beadle
Computed on October 22, 2026 at 02:47 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Watford have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Birmingham have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Charlton(home) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Cardiff(away) | 1-5 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Burnley(home) | 0-4 | Championship |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Bristol City(away) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Stoke City(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | QPR(home) | 3-0 | Championship |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Preston(home) | 4-0 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | West Brom(away) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Middlesbrough(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Derby(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Watford wins, 1 draw, 1 Birmingham win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2026 | Watford 3-0 Birmingham | Championship |
| Dec 1, 2025 | Birmingham 2-1 Watford | Championship |
| Mar 16, 2024 | Birmingham 0-1 Watford | Championship |
| Sep 16, 2023 | Watford 2-0 Birmingham | Championship |
| Mar 14, 2023 | Watford 3-0 Birmingham | Championship |
| Aug 16, 2022 | Birmingham 1-1 Watford | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Watford score 1.0 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Birmingham score 1.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford | 1.0 | 1.7 | 3 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Birmingham | 1.7 | 1.3 | 5 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Watford sit 20th in Championship (11 points from 11 matches) and Birmingham sit 4th (20 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Birmingham | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 20 | 11 | 20 |
| 20 | Watford | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 11 |
A question about Watford vs Birmingham?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Watford vs Birmingham?
- The Footlab AI model makes Birmingham the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Watford.
- Where and when is Watford vs Birmingham played?
- Watford vs Birmingham is played on April 24, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Vicarage Road, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.