Middlesbrough vs West Ham: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 45Kick-off on April 24, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough
The Footlab model makes West Ham the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Middlesbrough. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Middlesbrough vs West Ham?
West Ham starts as the favourite with a 143-point Elo edge (2,068 vs 1,926).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Middlesbrough have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; West Ham have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Blackburn(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Lincoln(home) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Wrexham(home) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Espanyol(home) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Celtic(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Charlton(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Burnley(away) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Portsmouth(home) | 3-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | 1. FC Magdeburg(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Rangers(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Middlesbrough win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 West Ham win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2017 | Middlesbrough 1-3 West Ham | Premier League |
| Oct 1, 2016 | West Ham 1-1 Middlesbrough | Premier League |
| Mar 20, 2012 | West Ham 1-1 Middlesbrough | Championship |
| Nov 29, 2011 | Middlesbrough 0-2 West Ham | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Middlesbrough vs West Ham on Jan 21, 2017
How many goals should we expect?
Middlesbrough score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; West Ham score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough | 1.5 | 1.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| West Ham | 1.7 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Middlesbrough sit 11th in Championship (3 points from 2 matches) and West Ham sit 17th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Middlesbrough | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 17 | West Ham | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Middlesbrough vs West Ham?
- The Footlab model makes West Ham the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Middlesbrough.
- Where and when is Middlesbrough vs West Ham played?
- Middlesbrough vs West Ham is played on April 24, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Riverside Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.