Bursa Yıldırımspor vs Karsiyaka: prediction and stats
3. Lig - Group 23. Lig Group 2 - 3Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Minareli Çavuş Spor Tesisleri, Bursa
The Footlab model makes Karsiyaka the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Bursa Yıldırımspor. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bursa Yıldırımspor vs Karsiyaka?
Karsiyaka starts as the favourite with a 149-point Elo edge (1,714 vs 1,565).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bursa Yıldırımspor have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Karsiyaka have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2026 | Çorluspor 1947(away) | 1-1 | 3. Lig - Play-offs |
| Apr 23, 2026 | Çorluspor 1947(home) | 2-3 | 3. Lig - Play-offs |
| Apr 18, 2026 | İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik(away) | 1-3 | 3. Lig - Group 1 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Galata(home) | 0-0 | 3. Lig - Group 1 |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Beykoz İshaklıspor(away) | 0-1 | 3. Lig - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 28, 2026 | Ayvalikgucu(home) | 0-2 | 3. Lig - Play-offs |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Ayvalikgucu(away) | 0-0 | 3. Lig - Play-offs |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Tire 2021 FK(away) | 1-1 | 3. Lig - Group 4 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Söke 1970(home) | 5-0 | 3. Lig - Group 4 |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Bornova 1877(away) | 5-0 | 3. Lig - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Bursa Yıldırımspor win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Karsiyaka win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2025 | Karsiyaka 0-1 Bursa Yıldırımspor | Türkiye Kupası |
Last archived meeting: Karsiyaka vs Bursa Yıldırımspor on Sep 17, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Bursa Yıldırımspor score 1.5 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Karsiyaka score 2.7 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bursa Yıldırımspor | 1.5 | 1.4 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Karsiyaka | 2.7 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bursa Yıldırımspor vs Karsiyaka?
- The Footlab model makes Karsiyaka the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Bursa Yıldırımspor.
- Where and when is Bursa Yıldırımspor vs Karsiyaka played?
- Bursa Yıldırımspor vs Karsiyaka is played on September 20, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Minareli Çavuş Spor Tesisleri, in the 3. Lig - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.