Bury vs Leek Town: prediction and stats
Non League Premier - NorthernRegular Season - 14Kick-off on October 13, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Gigg Lane, Bury, Lancashire
The Footlab AI model makes Bury the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Leek Town. The most likely score is 1-1. If Bury wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bury vs Leek Town?
Bury starts as the favourite with a 114-point Elo edge (1,975 vs 1,861).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Bury vs Leek Town
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Bury
Not enough data to predict the Bury lineup.
Leek Town
Not enough data to predict the Leek Town lineup.
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 09:12 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bury have 10 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats; Leek Town have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | Stockton Town(away) | 0-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Bromsgrove Sporting(home) | 2-1 | FA Cup |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Gainsborough Trinity(home) | 4-3 | FA Trophy |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Workington(home) | 5-1 | FA Cup |
| Sep 12, 2026 | AFC Emley(home) | 4-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | Rylands(home) | 3-3 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Worcester City(away) | 2-0 | FA Trophy |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Hyde United(home) | 2-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Bromsgrove Sporting(away) | 1-2 | FA Cup |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Redcar Athletic(away) | 2-3 | Non League Premier - Northern |
How many goals should we expect?
Bury score 2.7 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Leek Town score 2.1 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bury | 2.7 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Leek Town | 2.1 | 1.7 | 2 | 13/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bury sit 10th in Non League Premier - Northern (16 points from 10 matches) and Leek Town sit 17th (10 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Bury | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 9 | 16 |
| 17 | Leek Town | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 23 | 10 |
A question about Bury vs Leek Town?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bury vs Leek Town?
- The Footlab AI model makes Bury the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Leek Town.
- Where and when is Bury vs Leek Town played?
- Bury vs Leek Town is played on October 13, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Gigg Lane, in the Non League Premier - Northern.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 13, 2026Guiseley AFCvsCleethorpes Town
- Oct 13, 2026Gainsborough TrinityvsIlkeston Town
- Oct 13, 2026Hyde UnitedvsQuorn
- Oct 13, 2026WorkingtonvsWhitby Town
- Oct 13, 2026Ashton UnitedvsAlfreton Town
- Oct 13, 2026Bamber BridgevsWarrington Town
- Oct 13, 2026Lancaster CityvsStockton Town
- Oct 13, 2026United of ManchestervsAFC Emley