Gainsborough Trinity vs Ilkeston Town: prediction and stats
Non League Premier - NorthernRegular Season - 14Kick-off on October 13, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Kal Group Stadium, Gainsborough, Lincolnshire
The Footlab model makes Gainsborough Trinity the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Ilkeston Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gainsborough Trinity vs Ilkeston Town?
A very open match: only 64 Elo points separate Gainsborough Trinity (1,791) and Ilkeston Town (1,727).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gainsborough Trinity have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Ilkeston Town have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bury(home) | 0-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Stockton Town(home) | 4-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 15, 2026 | United of Manchester(away) | 3-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Alfreton Town(away) | 1-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Workington(home) | 2-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cleethorpes Town(home) | 0-3 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Warrington Town(home) | 1-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Whitby Town(away) | 0-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 11, 2026 | AFC Emley(away) | 2-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Stockton Town(home) | 1-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Gainsborough Trinity win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Ilkeston Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | Gainsborough Trinity 0-0 Ilkeston Town | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 12, 2025 | Ilkeston Town 0-1 Gainsborough Trinity | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Mar 4, 2025 | Gainsborough Trinity 0-0 Ilkeston Town | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 10, 2024 | Ilkeston Town 2-2 Gainsborough Trinity | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Dec 9, 2023 | Gainsborough Trinity 0-1 Ilkeston Town | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 15, 2023 | Ilkeston Town 4-0 Gainsborough Trinity | Non League Premier - Northern |
Last archived meeting: Gainsborough Trinity vs Ilkeston Town on Dec 20, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Gainsborough Trinity score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Ilkeston Town score 1.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gainsborough Trinity | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Ilkeston Town | 1.3 | 1.2 | 4 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gainsborough Trinity sit 8th in Non League Premier - Northern (9 points from 5 matches) and Ilkeston Town sit 13th (6 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Gainsborough Trinity | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 9 |
| 13 | Ilkeston Town | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gainsborough Trinity vs Ilkeston Town?
- The Footlab model makes Gainsborough Trinity the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Ilkeston Town.
- Where and when is Gainsborough Trinity vs Ilkeston Town played?
- Gainsborough Trinity vs Ilkeston Town is played on October 13, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Kal Group Stadium, in the Non League Premier - Northern.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 13, 2026BuryvsLeek Town
- Oct 13, 2026Guiseley AFCvsCleethorpes Town
- Oct 13, 2026Hyde UnitedvsQuorn
- Oct 13, 2026WorkingtonvsWhitby Town
- Oct 13, 2026Ashton UnitedvsAlfreton Town
- Oct 13, 2026Bamber BridgevsWarrington Town
- Oct 13, 2026Lancaster CityvsStockton Town
- Oct 13, 2026United of ManchestervsAFC Emley