Match

Caerau (Ely) vs llanelli AFC: prediction and stats

Welsh CupRound of 64Kick-off on October 16, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Cwrt-yr-Ala, Caerdydd

Caerau (Ely)llanelli AFC

The Footlab AI model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 74%, against 14% for a draw and 12% for llanelli AFC. The most likely score is 3-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Caerau (Ely) vs llanelli AFC?

Caerau (Ely) starts as the favourite with a 206-point Elo edge (1,739 vs 1,534).

74%14%12%
Caerau (Ely) winDrawllanelli AFC win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Caerau (Ely) vs llanelli AFC

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Caerau (Ely)

Not enough data to predict the Caerau (Ely) lineup.

llanelli AFC

Not enough data to predict the llanelli AFC lineup.

Computed on October 13, 2026 at 10:54 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Caerau (Ely) have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; llanelli AFC have 1, 2 and 12.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Caerau (Ely)
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 10, 2026Aberystwyth Town(away)1-0FAW Championship
Oct 2, 2026Afan Lido(home)2-0FAW Championship
Sep 26, 2026Cardiff Draconians(away)3-1FAW Championship
Sep 11, 2026llanelli AFC(home)3-0FAW Championship
Aug 31, 2026Treowen Stars(home)3-2FAW Championship
llanelli AFC
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 10, 2026Ynyshir Albions(away)2-6FAW Championship
Oct 2, 2026Baglan Dragons(home)1-2FAW Championship
Sep 26, 2026Llantwit Major(away)0-2FAW Championship
Sep 11, 2026Caerau (Ely)(away)0-3FAW Championship
Sep 4, 2026Treowen Stars(home)0-2FAW Championship

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Caerau (Ely) win, 0 draws, 5 llanelli AFC wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Sep 11, 2026Caerau (Ely) 3-0 llanelli AFCFAW Championship
Mar 7, 2025llanelli AFC 3-1 Caerau (Ely)FAW Championship
Oct 11, 2024Caerau (Ely) 1-2 llanelli AFCFAW Championship
Nov 3, 2023llanelli AFC 4-0 Caerau (Ely)FAW Championship
Oct 27, 2023Caerau (Ely) 1-2 llanelli AFCFAW Championship
Sep 7, 2019Caerau (Ely) 2-3 llanelli AFCFAW Championship

Last archived meeting: Caerau (Ely) vs llanelli AFC on Sep 11, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Caerau (Ely) score 2.1 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; llanelli AFC score 0.8 and concede 3.1. The model gives a 81% probability of over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Caerau (Ely)2.11.8410/1510/15
llanelli AFC0.83.108/1512/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

A question about Caerau (Ely) vs llanelli AFC?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Caerau (Ely) vs llanelli AFC?
The Footlab AI model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 74%, against 14% for a draw and 12% for llanelli AFC.
Where and when is Caerau (Ely) vs llanelli AFC played?
Caerau (Ely) vs llanelli AFC is played on October 16, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Cwrt-yr-Ala, in the Welsh Cup.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 81% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Caerau (Ely) and llanelli AFC

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