Where and when is Caerau (Ely) vs llanelli AFC played?

Caerau (Ely) vs llanelli AFC is played on September 11, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Cwrt-yr-Ala, in the FAW Championship.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Caerau (Ely) vs llanelli AFC: prediction and stats

FAW ChampionshipSouth - 8Kick-off on September 11, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Cwrt-yr-Ala, Caerdydd

Caerau (Ely)

llanelli AFC

The Footlab model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 61%, against 20% for a draw and 19% for llanelli AFC. The most likely score is 2-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Caerau (Ely) vs llanelli AFC?

A very open match: only 98 Elo points separate Caerau (Ely) (1,654) and llanelli AFC (1,557).

Caerau (Ely) win61 %

Draw20 %

llanelli AFC win19 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Caerau (Ely) have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; llanelli AFC have 1, 3 and 11.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Caerau (Ely)
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Swansea University(home)	1-5	FAW Championship
Aug 14, 2026	Trethomas Bluebirds(away)	4-2	FAW Championship
Aug 7, 2026	Ynyshir Albions(home)	1-1	FAW Championship
Aug 1, 2026	Carmarthen Town(away)	3-4	FAW Championship
Jul 25, 2026	Barnstaple Town(home)	4-4	Friendlies Clubs

llanelli AFC
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Cardiff Draconians(away)	2-4	FAW Championship
Aug 15, 2026	Swansea University(away)	0-3	FAW Championship
Aug 7, 2026	Trethomas Bluebirds(home)	1-1	FAW Championship
Jul 31, 2026	Newport City(home)	1-4	FAW Championship
Apr 18, 2026	Haverfordwest County AFC(away)	0-6	Premier League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 5 meetings: 0 Caerau (Ely) win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 llanelli AFC win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 7, 2025	llanelli AFC 3-1 Caerau (Ely)	FAW Championship
Oct 11, 2024	Caerau (Ely) 1-2 llanelli AFC	FAW Championship
Nov 3, 2023	llanelli AFC 4-0 Caerau (Ely)	FAW Championship
Oct 27, 2023	Caerau (Ely) 1-2 llanelli AFC	FAW Championship
Sep 7, 2019	Caerau (Ely) 2-3 llanelli AFC	FAW Championship

Last archived meeting: llanelli AFC vs Caerau (Ely) on Mar 7, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Caerau (Ely) score 2.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; llanelli AFC score 0.7 and concede 2.7. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Caerau (Ely)	2.1	1.5	6	8/15	8/15
llanelli AFC	0.7	2.7	1	8/15	9/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Caerau (Ely) sit 11th in FAW Championship (4 points from 4 matches) and llanelli AFC sit 15th (1 points from 4 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
11	Caerau (Ely)	4	1	1	2	9	12	4
15	llanelli AFC	4	0	1	3	4	12	1

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Caerau (Ely) vs llanelli AFC?: The Footlab model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 61%, against 20% for a draw and 19% for llanelli AFC.
Where and when is Caerau (Ely) vs llanelli AFC played?: Caerau (Ely) vs llanelli AFC is played on September 11, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Cwrt-yr-Ala, in the FAW Championship.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.