Caernarfon Town vs Briton Ferry: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 14Kick-off on October 23, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)The Oval, Caernarfon, Gwynedd
The Footlab model makes Caernarfon Town the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Briton Ferry. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Caernarfon Town vs Briton Ferry?
A very open match: only 91 Elo points separate Caernarfon Town (1,914) and Briton Ferry (1,823).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Caernarfon Town have 9 wins, 0 draws and 6 defeats; Briton Ferry have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Trefelin(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Colwyn Bay(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Penybont(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | GAP Connah S Quay FC(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | FC Levadia Tallinn(away) | 0-5 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Flint Town United(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | The New Saints(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Cambrian & Clydach(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Ammanford AFC(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Merthyr Town(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 4 Caernarfon Town win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Briton Ferry win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2025 | Caernarfon Town 4-1 Briton Ferry | Premier League |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Briton Ferry 2-5 Caernarfon Town | Premier League |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Briton Ferry 0-1 Caernarfon Town | Premier League |
| Sep 14, 2024 | Caernarfon Town 3-2 Briton Ferry | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Caernarfon Town vs Briton Ferry on Nov 1, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Caernarfon Town score 1.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Briton Ferry score 1.2 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caernarfon Town | 1.7 | 1.7 | 6 | 6/15 | 12/15 |
| Briton Ferry | 1.2 | 0.9 | 5 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Caernarfon Town sit 6th in Premier League (9 points from 4 matches) and Briton Ferry sit 8th (7 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Caernarfon Town | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Briton Ferry | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Caernarfon Town vs Briton Ferry?
- The Footlab model makes Caernarfon Town the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Briton Ferry.
- Where and when is Caernarfon Town vs Briton Ferry played?
- Caernarfon Town vs Briton Ferry is played on October 23, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at The Oval, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.