Cardiff MET vs GAP Connah S Quay FC: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 20Kick-off on December 18, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Cyncoed Campus Artificial Pitch, Caerdydd
The Footlab model makes GAP Connah S Quay FC the favourite at 63%, against 20% for a draw and 17% for Cardiff MET. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cardiff MET vs GAP Connah S Quay FC?
GAP Connah S Quay FC starts as the favourite with a 160-point Elo edge (1,945 vs 1,785).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cardiff MET have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; GAP Connah S Quay FC have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | The New Saints(home) | 0-5 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Barry Town(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Airbus UK(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Holywell(home) | 6-1 | Premier League |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Flint Town United(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ammanford AFC(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Trefelin(home) | 6-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Holywell(away) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Caernarfon Town(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Ballkani(away) | 2-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Cardiff MET win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 GAP Connah S Quay FC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2025 | Cardiff MET 0-3 GAP Connah S Quay FC | Premier League |
| Sep 13, 2025 | GAP Connah S Quay FC 1-1 Cardiff MET | Premier League |
| Nov 2, 2024 | GAP Connah S Quay FC 1-0 Cardiff MET | Premier League |
| Sep 21, 2024 | Cardiff MET 2-1 GAP Connah S Quay FC | Premier League |
| Apr 6, 2024 | Cardiff MET 0-3 GAP Connah S Quay FC | Premier League |
| Feb 24, 2024 | GAP Connah S Quay FC 2-1 Cardiff MET | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Cardiff MET vs GAP Connah S Quay FC on Nov 1, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Cardiff MET score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; GAP Connah S Quay FC score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff MET | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
| GAP Connah S Quay FC | 1.7 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cardiff MET sit 10th in Premier League (6 points from 4 matches) and GAP Connah S Quay FC sit 4th (9 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 9 |
| 10 | Cardiff MET | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cardiff MET vs GAP Connah S Quay FC?
- The Footlab model makes GAP Connah S Quay FC the favourite at 63%, against 20% for a draw and 17% for Cardiff MET.
- Where and when is Cardiff MET vs GAP Connah S Quay FC played?
- Cardiff MET vs GAP Connah S Quay FC is played on December 18, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Cyncoed Campus Artificial Pitch, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.