Colwyn Bay vs The New Saints: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 20Kick-off on December 18, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Four Crosses Construction Arena, Bae Colwyn, Conwy
The Footlab model makes The New Saints the favourite at 55%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for Colwyn Bay. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Colwyn Bay vs The New Saints?
The New Saints starts as the favourite with a 195-point Elo edge (2,082 vs 1,887).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Colwyn Bay have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; The New Saints have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Airbus UK(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Caernarfon Town(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Ammanford AFC(away) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Trefelin(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Bootle(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Cardiff MET(away) | 5-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Briton Ferry(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Haverfordwest County AFC(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Penybont(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Flora Tallinn(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Colwyn Bay win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 The New Saints win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | The New Saints 0-2 Colwyn Bay | Premier League |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Colwyn Bay 0-2 The New Saints | Premier League |
| Jan 13, 2026 | The New Saints 1-0 Colwyn Bay | Premier League |
| Aug 25, 2025 | Colwyn Bay 1-1 The New Saints | Premier League |
| Dec 15, 2024 | The New Saints 4-1 Colwyn Bay | Welsh Cup |
| Oct 31, 2023 | The New Saints 6-1 Colwyn Bay | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: The New Saints vs Colwyn Bay on Mar 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Colwyn Bay score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; The New Saints score 1.5 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colwyn Bay | 1.3 | 1.1 | 7 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| The New Saints | 1.5 | 0.7 | 7 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Colwyn Bay sit 9th in Premier League (7 points from 4 matches) and The New Saints sit 2nd (10 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | The New Saints | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Colwyn Bay | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Colwyn Bay vs The New Saints?
- The Footlab model makes The New Saints the favourite at 55%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for Colwyn Bay.
- Where and when is Colwyn Bay vs The New Saints played?
- Colwyn Bay vs The New Saints is played on December 18, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Four Crosses Construction Arena, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.