Briton Ferry vs Caernarfon Town: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 20Kick-off on December 18, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Old Road, Briton Ferry
The Footlab model makes Caernarfon Town the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Briton Ferry. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Briton Ferry vs Caernarfon Town?
A very open match: only 91 Elo points separate Briton Ferry (1,823) and Caernarfon Town (1,914).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Briton Ferry have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Caernarfon Town have 9, 0 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Flint Town United(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | The New Saints(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Cambrian & Clydach(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Ammanford AFC(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Merthyr Town(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Trefelin(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Colwyn Bay(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Penybont(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | GAP Connah S Quay FC(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | FC Levadia Tallinn(away) | 0-5 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Briton Ferry win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Caernarfon Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2025 | Caernarfon Town 4-1 Briton Ferry | Premier League |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Briton Ferry 2-5 Caernarfon Town | Premier League |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Briton Ferry 0-1 Caernarfon Town | Premier League |
| Sep 14, 2024 | Caernarfon Town 3-2 Briton Ferry | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Caernarfon Town vs Briton Ferry on Nov 1, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Briton Ferry score 1.2 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Caernarfon Town score 1.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Briton Ferry | 1.2 | 0.9 | 5 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Caernarfon Town | 1.7 | 1.7 | 6 | 6/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Briton Ferry sit 8th in Premier League (7 points from 4 matches) and Caernarfon Town sit 6th (9 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Caernarfon Town | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Briton Ferry | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Briton Ferry vs Caernarfon Town?
- The Footlab model makes Caernarfon Town the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Briton Ferry.
- Where and when is Briton Ferry vs Caernarfon Town played?
- Briton Ferry vs Caernarfon Town is played on December 18, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Old Road, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.