Cardiff MET vs Trefelin: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 13Kick-off on October 9, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Cyncoed Campus Artificial Pitch, Caerdydd
The Footlab model makes Cardiff MET the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 31% for Trefelin. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cardiff MET vs Trefelin?
A very open match: only 46 Elo points separate Cardiff MET (1,805) and Trefelin (1,760).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cardiff MET have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Trefelin have 10, 0 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | The New Saints(home) | 0-5 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Barry Town(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Airbus UK(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Holywell(home) | 6-1 | Premier League |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Flint Town United(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Caernarfon Town(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | GAP Connah S Quay FC(away) | 0-6 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Llandudno(home) | 0-4 | Premier League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Colwyn Bay(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Newport City(away) | 5-0 | FAW Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Cardiff MET score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Trefelin score 2.6 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff MET | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
| Trefelin | 2.6 | 1.4 | 7 | 3/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cardiff MET sit 10th in Premier League (6 points from 4 matches) and Trefelin sit 16th (0 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Cardiff MET | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 6 |
| 16 | Trefelin | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 14 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cardiff MET vs Trefelin?
- The Footlab model makes Cardiff MET the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 31% for Trefelin.
- Where and when is Cardiff MET vs Trefelin played?
- Cardiff MET vs Trefelin is played on October 9, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Cyncoed Campus Artificial Pitch, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.